Volkswagen Vehicle Deliveries, Sales, and Production Statistics

Volkswagen Group's deliveries to customers (retail sales), vehicle sales (wholesales) and production, in thousands of vehicles, are reviewed for FY2019–FY2025 together with their year-over-year growth, with production shown including and excluding the Chinese joint ventures (JVs). Production excluding the Chinese JVs is reported from FY2023 only, so comparisons that involve it start there. The assessment is that volumes have stabilized on a lower plateau, with the Chinese JVs the main source of the recent decline in production.

• Cycle: Partial Recovery That Has Stalled: Volume has recovered only part of the cycle's loss, and the recovery has stalled. Deliveries to customers fell 24.7% from the FY2019 peak of 10,975 thousand vehicles to the FY2022 trough of 8,263 thousand, a loss of 2,712 thousand. FY2023 regained 977 thousand, or 36.0% of the lost volume (the rebound divided by the peak-to-trough loss), but FY2024 and FY2025 gave back 256 thousand, leaving FY2025 at 81.9% of the peak and 1,991 thousand below it, with the gap to the peak widening from 15.8% in FY2023 to 18.1%. Wholesales and production including the Chinese JVs ended FY2025 17.7% and 17.8% below their FY2019 peaks, so no measure has regained its prior high, and the shortfall is what a full recovery would still need to regain.

• Growth: From Large Swings to Slowing Decline: Growth has moved from large swings to a slowing decline. Across deliveries, wholesales and production including the Chinese JVs, annual growth ran from a fall of 17.8% to a rise of 11.8% in FY2020–FY2023, and declines have narrowed to between 0.2% and 3.8% across all four measures in FY2024–FY2025. Production led the downturn, falling 17.8% against 15.2% for deliveries in FY2020 and 6.9% against 4.5% in FY2021, then rose 5.2% in FY2022 while deliveries fell 7.0%, and rebounded 6.8% in FY2023 against 11.8% for deliveries. Volumes have stopped swinging and are drifting lower, as deliveries fell a further 2.3% in FY2024 and 0.5% in FY2025, so the near-term question is whether the decline stops rather than how fast a rebound arrives.

• Alignment: Retail, Wholesale and Production Have Converged: Deliveries, wholesales and production have converged, which suggests a lower risk of a corrective cut in output. The spread (the highest minus the lowest of the three measures in a year) widened from 152 thousand in FY2019 to 599 thousand, or 6.7% of deliveries, in FY2021, when production ran below deliveries, and production then exceeded deliveries by 454 thousand in FY2022. It has since narrowed to between 83 thousand and 122 thousand in FY2023–FY2025, or 1.4% of FY2025 deliveries. Wholesales exceeded deliveries in every year from FY2022 to FY2025, by 38 thousand in FY2025, after deliveries exceeded wholesales by 306 thousand in FY2021. The dataset does not show inventory, pricing or mix, so the spread is a pointer to balance, not a measure of stock.

• Key Risk: Chinese JV Volume Drives the Decline: The key risk is concentrated in the Chinese JVs, where the recent decline in production sits. The implied JV volume (production including the JVs less production excluding them) fell 372 thousand, or 12.1%, from 3,072 thousand in FY2023 to 2,700 thousand in FY2025, against a fall of 37 thousand (0.6%) outside them, so the JVs supplied 91.0% of the 409 thousand decline in total production (their change divided by the total change). Their share of production eased from 33.0% to 30.3%, which reduces reliance on them but leaves the weakness in China-linked volume.

• Structural Takeaway & Trend: Structurally, Volkswagen's volume has reset to a lower and flatter base rather than recovered: deliveries ended FY2025 18.1% below the FY2019 peak, the three measures sat within 122 thousand of each other in FY2025, and production outside the Chinese JVs moved by only 37 thousand in two years. The swings of FY2020–FY2023 have given way to drift, with deliveries between 8,984 thousand and 9,240 thousand in FY2023–FY2025. For equity holders, the evidence supports a near-stable volume base but not volume-led growth, and the vulnerability is the Chinese JV volume, where 91.0% of the recent decline in production sits. The dataset covers volumes only, so it cannot show pricing, mix, margins or cash flow, and any view on earnings needs that evidence.

  The trend has changed from cyclical swings to a slowing decline, and the decline in every measure was smaller in FY2025 than in FY2024. If the pattern holds, volumes would flatten close to the FY2025 level rather than rebound, and the JV share of production would keep easing from 30.3%. Deliveries above the FY2023 level of 9,240 thousand, or production including the JVs above 9,309 thousand, would indicate that recovery has resumed, while implied JV volume below 2,700 thousand or a spread between the three measures above 122 thousand would confirm that the plateau is eroding.