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Tracking Tesla Vehicle Production and Deliveries Numbers

Tesla Model Y production vehicle. Source: Tesla update letter Q4 2019.

In this article, I have created a series of charts below to keep track of Tesla quarterly production and deliveries numbers of its flagship electric vehicles such as Model S, Model X and Model 3.

Furthermore, there is an extra chart below to show the correlation between total vehicle delivery and automotive revenue. Finally, you will get a summary of the quarterly (qoq) and year over year (yoy) growth rate of Tesla total vehicle delivery.

The production and delivery numbers in the following charts are obtained directly from the company quarterly vehicle production and deliveries updates. According to Tesla, the delivery number published in the quarterly updates should be viewed as conservative as vehicle delivery is counted as delivered only when it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct. Vehicles produced but not delivered is counted as in transit when the customers have placed order or paid the full purchase price.

Therefore, read on to find out more!

Chart of Tesla Model 3 Production

Tesla Model 3 production numbers

Tesla Model 3 production numbers

The chart above shows Tesla Model 3 quarterly production numbers from 2017 to 2019. Tesla has only started large scale production of Model 3 in the second half of 2017.

As shown in the chart, Model 3 production has grown tremendously over the previous 10 quarters. The massive growth from just 260 vehicles in 3Q 2017 to more than 86,000 vehicles in 4Q 2019 shows an average quarterly production growth rate of as much as 160%!

Moreover, year over year (yoy) growth rate has been even more impressive. From a spreadsheet calculation which i did not show here, the average Model 3 yoy production growth rate is roughly 4000% for the 10 quarters shown in the chart above.

Chart of Tesla Model S and Model X Production

Tesla Model S and Model X production numbers

Tesla Model S and Model X production numbers

Model S and Model X production has been sort of flat since 2016. The average sequential growth rate for the past 16 quarters shown in the chart above is only 3% whereas the average yoy growth rate is -4%.

You might notice a worrying trend in the chart above. There has been significant decline in the production of Model S and Model X since 2019. As of 4Q 2019, total production of Model S and X in 2019 was not even half of the number in the entire year of 2018.

There are a lot of reasons for the decline in the production for Model S and Model X. The most likely one would be that these models are not meant for mass production as they are considered premium vehicles which are only going into production when customers have confirmed their orders.

Moreover, Tesla has shifted its focus to Model 3 during the same period which may explain the decline in Model S and Model X production. During the same period, Tesla has upgraded these models with longer range battery and thus higher prices for these models.

According to Tesla Q4 2018 Update Letter, Tesla wanted to provide more differentiation between Model S/X and Model 3 so that the lower range version of Model S/X does not cannibalize the sales of Model 3.

With higher prices and Tesla’s focus shifted to mass production of Model 3, the demand for Model S and X has dropped substantially as shown in the Model S/X vehicles delivery chart below. When demand dropped, production would certainly follow suit.

Chart of Tesla Model 3 Delivery

Tesla Model 3 delivery numbers

Tesla Model 3 delivery numbers

Similar to the production rate, the delivery of Model 3 also shows exceptional result where the average sequential growth rate is roughly 150% for the 10 quarters shown in the chart above.

The delivery number of just 220 vehicles in 3Q 2017 and a massive 92,000 in 4Q 2019 produced an average year on year (yoy) growth rate of more than 5000%!

The decline in delivery in 1Q19 was mainly due to the pull forward of demand from Q1 2019 to Q4 2018 because of the step down of the federal tax credit starting 2019. But the demand for Model 3 has shown massive growth again all the way from 2Q 2019 to 4Q 2019. The solid result shows that the appeal of Model 3 has not come down even though federal tax credit has been reduced.

Despite the decline in delivery in 1Q19, Tesla maintained its guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 total vehicle deliveries in 2019.

As pointed out in the Q4 2019 Production and Deliveries Letter, Tesla 2019 full year delivery number was 367,500 vehicles and the result was in line with the company guidance.

The solid deliveries number was largely helped by the results of Model 3 and this shows that Tesla is able to meet its guidance.

Chart of Tesla Model S and Model X Delivery

Tesla Model S and Model X delivery numbers

Tesla Model S and Model X delivery numbers

Model S and Model X delivery has also been sort of flat since 2016. The average sequential growth rate of the data in the chart above is around 6% whereas the average year over year growth rate is just 1%.

You may notice there has been a significant decline in the delivery of Model S and Model X since 2019 compared to prior years.

As discussed in prior paragraphs, the reason for the lower demand has been largely due to the discontinuation of the 75kWh version of Model S and Model X in 4Q18 as pointed out in the company Q4 2018 Update Letter. Tesla wanted to focus on the performance version of Model S and Model X – longer battery range – to avoid cannibalization of Model 3 by the lower range version of Model S and Model X. Due to the premium features added such as larger battery and longer range, the price of Model S and X has increased significantly.

For this reason, the demand for the premium version of both Model S and Model X has declined since 2019.

Tesla Total Vehicle Deliveries vs Automotive Revenue

Tesla total vehicle delivery versus automotive revenue

Tesla total vehicle delivery versus automotive revenue

The chart above represents Tesla total vehicle deliveries and its respective automotive revenue. Automotive revenues are automotive sales and leasing revenues recognized upon vehicles are delivered.

Energy products revenues such as the sales of Powerwall and Powerpack are excluded from automotive revenue. Thus, energy products revenues are not measured in the chart above.

Based on the chart, we can see that automotive revenue is closely correlated to vehicle delivery numbers. When vehicle delivery increases, automotive revenue also increases in the same direction and vice versa.

Noticed how automotive revenue dropped significantly in 1Q19 when total vehicle deliveries had slumped to only 60,000 vehicles from the prior quarter of 90,000 vehicles.

As of Q4 2019, Tesla total vehicle delivery was 112,000 vehicles which represents a year on year growth rate of as much as 24% compared to Q4 2018. Ironically, Tesla automotive revenue of $6.4 billion in Q4 2019 represents a year on year growth rate of only 1%.

In short, Tesla had delivered more vehicles in Q4 2019 but revenue growth in the same quarter was sort of flat compared to prior year. The reason for the record vehicle deliveries but stagnating revenue growth can be explained by the fact that Tesla had discounted significantly the sale prices of its vehicles in order to jack up demand for its products.

This was done at the expense of profitability which can be seen from its declining operating income of only $359 million compared to the prior year of $414 million. This represents a decline of as much as -10% from the prior year.

Tesla Vehicle Deliveries Quarterly Growth Rate

Tesla total vehicle delivery QoQ growth rate

Tesla total vehicle delivery QoQ growth rate

The chart above represents Tesla quarter over quarter (qoq) growth rate of total vehicle deliveries from 2015 to 2019.

Sequential growth of total vehicle deliveries had been mostly positive for most of the quarters. There are only a handful of quarters with negative growth rate. From a spreadsheet calculation, the average sequential growth rate is roughly 17% for all quarters shown in the chart above.

As expected, most growth in vehicle deliveries came primarily from Model 3 as Model 3 alone made up over 80% of vehicle deliveries.

The double digit vehicle delivery growth rate in most quarters shows that Tesla is still growing at an impressive rate and a force to be reckoned with in the automotive industry.

Tesla Vehicle Deliveries Year On Year Growth Rate

Tesla total vehicle delivery YoY growth rate

Tesla total vehicle delivery YoY growth rate

The chart above represents year on year (yoy) growth rate of Tesla total vehicle deliveries from 2016 to 2019.

The results from the chart above are even more impressive compared to the quarterly growth rate results. As seen from the chart, all quarters delivered positive numbers in total vehicle delivery growth rate.

From a spreadsheet calculation of all quarters in the chart, the average yoy growth rate for total vehicle delivery is roughly 74%! That is quite an exceptional figure.

When you look at the results in recent quarters such as the end of 2018 and early of 2019, Tesla has achieved mostly triple digit growth rates in those quarters. The results are not that bad either in recent quarters such as those in 3Q and 4Q 2019 when the company still managed to achieve double-digit growth even after 2 years into production for Model 3.

Conclusion

Tesla Model 3 production and delivery numbers are phenomenal in which the average yoy growth rate is 4000% and 5000% respectively for the previous 10 quarters shown in the chart.

Tesla Model S and Model X production and delivery numbers have been flat since 2016 and has declined by as much as half starting 2019. The decline has been mainly due to price increases to avoid Model 3 sales cannibalization by lower range Model S and X.

Tesla automotive revenues are highly correlated to the total vehicle delivery numbers in which both are moving in the same direction as shown in the chart.

Tesla total vehicle delivery numbers are having double-digit qoq and yoy growth rates of 17% and 74% respectively. The impressive results are mainly due to the growth of Model 3 delivery as Model S and Model X delivery has been flat.

References and Credits

1. Production and Deliveries figures in the charts above were obtained from Tesla Investor Press Release.

2. Featured image was obtained from Jakob Härter.

Disclosure

Readers, investors or visitors are free to use, copy, quote, distribute, modify, edit, share and link any materials in this webpage such as the charts, snapshots, texts, paragraphs and so on. All you need to do is provide credits such as a link or mention the name of this website.

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