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Tracking Tesla Vehicle Production and Deliveries Numbers

Tesla Motors. Source: Flickr Image

This article keeps track of Tesla’s quarterly vehicle production and deliveries numbers for Model S, Model X, Model 3 and the new Model Y.

Other than vehicle production and delivery numbers, this article also explores a number of other statistics, including Tesla’s cumulative deliveries, trailing 12-months (TTM) and annual deliveries, automotive sales, sales comparison with Ford and GM, quarter over quarter (QoQ) and year over year (YoY) growth rates.

Without further said, let’s start with the following topics!

Tesla’s Production Capacity

The following snapshot shows Tesla’s production capacity as of fiscal 2Q 2022:

Installed Annual Capacity Current Status
California Model S / Model X 100,000 Production
Model 3 / Model Y 550,000 Production
Shanghai Model 3 / Model Y >750,000 Production
Berlin Model Y >250,000 Production
Texas Model Y >250,000 Production
Cybertruck In development
TBD Tesla Semi In development
Roaster In development
Robotaxi In development
India Future Product Pending confirmation
Indonesia Future Product Pending confirmation

* Installed capacity ≠ current production rate and there may be limitations discovered as production rates approach capacity.

* Production rates depend on a variety of factors, including equipment uptime, component supply, downtime related to factory upgrades, regulatory considerations, and other factors.

* Tesla production capacity 2Q 2022. Source: Tesla 2Q 2022 update letter.

Based on the table above, Tesla’s Model 3/Y production at the Fremont Gigafactory has an annual installed capacity of up to 550,000 vehicles but that doesn’t mean Tesla can ramp the production to this number.

On the other hand, the installed annual capacity for Model S/X is limited to only 100,000 vehicles at the Fremont Gigafactory, a significantly smaller figure compared to that of Model 3/Y.

Similarly, Tesla’s annual production capacity at the Shanghai Gigafactory is now the largest among all gigafactories and is estimated to produce greater than 750,000 vehicles as of 2Q 2022.

The larger production capacity at the Shanghai Gigafactory has been a result of the ongoing expansion.

However, Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory produces only the Model 3/Y instead of all models despite being the company’s main export hub to the world.

In addition, Tesla is also building a number of Gigafactory around the world which will work on other models such as the Tesla Semi, Cybertruck, and Roadster.

The Berlin Gigafactory is completed as of 4Q 2021 and the factory is now rolling out the Model Y for the European market.

The production capacity at the Berlin Gigafactory is estimated at 250,000 vehicles per year.

Similarly, Tesla’s Texas Gigafactor which produces only the Model Y is estimated at 250,000 units per year.

As of 2Q 2022, Tesla’s total installed production capacity on a worldwide basis is close to 2 million vehicles per year.

Going forward, Tesla’s installed capacity can easily double and exceed 2 million vehicles per year when all Gigafactory, including the upcoming Gigafactory India and the Gigafactory Indonesia, are coming onboard.

In short, Tesla is on the cusp of ruling the EV space!

Tesla’s Model 3/Y Production

Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y production

Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y production

* Model Y production started only in 1Q 2020.
* Model 3/Y production numbers are obtained directly from Tesla’s press releases.
* Tesla’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

The chart above shows Tesla Model 3 and Model Y combined quarterly production numbers between fiscal 2017 and 2022.

For your information, Tesla has only started large-scale production of Model 3 in the second half of 2017 and Model Y in 1Q 2020.

As the chart shows, Tesla’s combined production numbers, which include both the Model 3 and Model Y, have grown tremendously over the past 5 years, reaching a record high as of 3Q 2022 at 346,000 vehicles.

Year-over-year, Tesla’s 3Q 2022 production number grew by 51%.

According to the chart, Tesla’s Model 3/Y production accelerated the most since fiscal 2020 as a result of the company’s aggressive expansion on a global scale.

In this aspect, Tesla’s Model 3/Y production capacity can easily exceed 1 million vehicles per year by the end of 2022.

In addition, Tesla also plans to further expand the Shanghai Gigafactory’s capacity beyond the current 750,000 vehicles on an annual basis.

At this production rate, Tesla’s targeted 2022 production numbers for Model 3/Y on a global level will be more than 1 million units, provided that the company will not be seriously disrupted by supply chain issues.

Tesla’s Model S/X Production

Tesla's Model S and Model X production

Tesla’s Model S and Model X production

* Model S/X production numbers are obtained directly from Tesla’s press releases.
* Tesla’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

On the contrary, Tesla’s Model S and Model X productions have been sort of flat since 2016 and the figure has even declined significantly during fiscal 2019 and reached only 14,000 vehicles as of fiscal Q1 2022.

Despite having an installed capacity of 100,000 vehicles on an annual basis at the Fremont Gigafactory, Tesla produced only 24,000 Model S/X in fiscal 2021.

In fiscal 2022, Tesla’s Model S/X production stood at only 50,000 vehicles in the first 3 quarters of the year.

For your information, Tesla does not make any Model S/X elsewhere except at the Fremont Gigafactory in the U.S.

In the 1st quarter of 2021, Tesla’s Model S/X production was nil due to the production shift to newer models for Model S/X.

And, Tesla is slowly shifting to the newer Model S/X production line which has resulted in fewer Model S/X being produced.

For your information, Tesla’s Model S/X is considered a premium vehicle in which mass production is limited or may not be feasible.

In addition, the mass market appeal for Model S/X may not be as huge as that of Model 3/Y because of its higher price points.

As such, the Model S/X has a maximum production capacity of only 100,000 vehicles per year at the Fremont Gigafactory and is only produced in the U.S.

Over the years, Tesla has not been able to grow the production of Model S/X due primarily to the premium features of these models and of course, the exorbitant price point.

Generally speaking, the higher entry price for the Model S/X has rendered mass-market adoption of these models nearly impossible.

Tesla’s Model 3/Y Delivery

Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y delivery

Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y delivery

* Model Y delivery started only in 2Q 2020.
* Model 3/Y delivery numbers are obtained directly from Tesla’s press releases.
* Tesla’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

On the delivery side, Tesla delivered nearly 300,000 Model 3/Y in fiscal Q1 2022, up 61% from a year ago.

Tesla’s Model 3/Y deliveries over the past 3 years have been nothing short of extraordinary and it has been accelerating since fiscal 2020.

The appeal of the Model 3/Y to the mass market is undisputed.

Again, the massive jump in Model 3/Y deliveries in 2021 and 2022 has been primarily driven by the delivery ramp at both the Shanghai Gigafactory and Fremont Gigafactory.

Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory has been adding massive numbers of Model 3/Y for the Chinese market since fiscal 2020 after its inception in 2019.

Despite the COVID-19 headwinds and the microchip disruption, Tesla has so far managed to defy the challenges and pressed forward to deliver record vehicle sales results in 2021 and 2022.

Cumulatively, Tesla has delivered roughly 2.7 million Model 3 and Y combined as of 2022 Q3 since the start of the Model 3 car 3 years ago.

Tesla’s Model S/X Delivery

Tesla's Model S and Model X delivery

Tesla’s Model S and Model X delivery

* Model S/X delivery numbers are obtained directly from Tesla’s press releases.
* Tesla’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

In contrast, Tesla delivered nearly 15,000 Model S and Model X in fiscal 1Q 2022 as shown in the chart above, up more than 600% from a year ago.

Despite the huge jump in delivery numbers in 3Q 2022, Tesla’s Model S/X actually has been on a decline on a long-term basis.

Tesla’s Model S/X deliveries averaged about 25,000 vehicles per quarter prior to 2019 but the figure dropped drastically since 2019 with an average figure of only 15,000 vehicles per quarter delivered.

And, Tesla has delivered only a total of 25,000 Model S/X in 2021, a significantly lower number than its historical highs.

In the 1st 3 quarters of 2022, Tesla’s Model S/X delivery totaled 50,000 units.

Over the chart, you may notice that Tesla’s Model S/X delivery has been going downhill steadily and the downtrend has accelerated in 2021.

The downtrend is sort of expected as Tesla has shifted its focus to the Model 3/Y since 2019 due primarily to the mass production capability of these models.

As mentioned, Tesla’s Model S/X are considered premium models in which the installed production capacity is limited to only 100,000 vehicles per year compared to the 500,000 installed capacity for Model 3/Y per Gigafactory.

Tesla won’t survive on Model S/X alone as these models sell for nearly USD100,000 per piece.

How many can afford a vehicle that costs nearly USD100,000?

Therefore, Tesla needs the Model 3/Y to survive and grow.

Currently, the Model S/X is produced only at the Fremont Gigafactory in the U.S., and these vehicles are exported globally to other countries.

Tesla Vs. Ford And GM In Annual Vehicle Sales

Tesla's vehicle delivery vs. Ford and GM

Tesla’s vehicle delivery vs. Ford and GM

* Tesla’s 2021 vehicle delivery numbers are projected based on 50% year-on-year growth rate.
* Ford’s 2021 vehicle delivery numbers are up to only 3Q 2021 results.
* GM’s 2021 vehicle delivery numbers are are to only 3Q 2021 results.
* All companies’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

The chart above shows Tesla’s vehicle sales or deliveries compared to that of Ford and General Motors on an annual basis.

The comparison in vehicle deliveries among Tesla, Ford and GM is meant to give readers an idea of where Tesla stands in terms of car sales figures over the last several years.

According to the chart, Tesla’s vehicle sales seem awfully small when pitted against that of its bigger rivals such as Ford and GM.

For example, Tesla delivered only a million vehicles in 2021 compared to 4 million vehicle deliveries for Ford and 3 million for General Motors.

In 2021, Tesla’s total vehicle deliveries were 4X fewer than that of Ford Motor and 3X fewer than that of General Motors.

The difference was even bigger back in 2015 when Ford and GM delivered nearly 6 million vehicles each compared to Tesla’s 50,000 vehicles.

However, Tesla is expected to be closing in on Ford and GM’s vehicle sales when Tesla’s delivery figure is projected to reach 1.4 million vehicles in fiscal 2022.

Also, in 2022, Ford Motors and General Motors are estimated to deliver 4.6 million and 2.8 million vehicles, respectively, a significantly higher number compared to that of Tesla in the same year.

While Tesla’s vehicle delivery is much smaller compared to Ford and GM, its market capitalization is roughly 10X higher than that of Ford and GM combined as of July 2022.

Despite the larger vehicle sales, Ford and GM have been seeing their figures trending lower since fiscal 2015, and the numbers are expected to be moderating in fiscal 2022, driven by a multitude of issues, including the supply chain disruption.

In contrast, Tesla’s vehicle sales have been growing by leaps and bounds between fiscal 2015 and 2022, and that probably explains the huge market capitalization differences.

Tesla’s Vehicle Sales Vs. Nio, Xpeng And Li Auto

Tesla's vehicle delivery vs. Chinese EV companies

Tesla’s vehicle delivery vs. Chinese EV companies

* Vehicle delivery data is presented on a TTM basis and the quarterly data is obtained directly from the companies’ press releases.
* TTM data is the sum of the quarterly data on a trailing 12-month or 4-quarter basis.
* All companies’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

While Tesla’s vehicle delivery number is far fewer than that of GM and Ford, it’s much larger compared to Chinese EV makers such as Nio, Xpeng and Li Auto as shown in the chart above.

For example, as of fiscal 2Q 2022, Tesla’s TTM vehicle delivery figure reaches more than 1.1 million vehicles while Nio, the biggest EV maker in China by market cap, delivered only 100,000 vehicles during the same period.

Other Chinese EV companies such as Xpeng and Li Auto delivered a much higher number of vehicles as of 2Q 2022 compared to Nio, with Xpeng at 136,000 units and Li Auto at 121,000 units on a TTM basis.

In fiscal 2021, all Chinese EV companies delivered about 100,000 vehicles each compared to nearly 1 million vehicles for Tesla.

In short, Tesla outpaces all Chinese EV companies by a large margin in terms of car sales figures.

Tesla’s Vehicle Deliveries And Automotive Revenue

Tesla's vehicle delivery and automotive revenue

Tesla’s vehicle delivery and automotive revenue

* Automotive revenue and vehicle delivery data shown in the chart above is presented on a TTM basis.
* TTM data is calculated based on the sum of quarterly data on a trailing 12-month or 4-quarter basis.
* Tesla’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

The TTM plot is to smooths out all the bumps of a quarterly plot and displays a very clear trend on a long-term basis.

That said, Tesla’s total vehicle deliveries have been surging and reached slightly over 1,200,000 vehicles as of 3Q 2022 on a TTM basis.

In the same quarter, Tesla’s automotive revenue is expected to total $60 billion, up 50% from a year ago.

At a growth rate that averages around 50%, Tesla’s vehicle sales will total nearly 1.4 million vehicles by the end of fiscal 2022 on a TTM basis.

Similarly, Tesla’s automotive revenue is expected to come in at $66 billion by fiscal 4Q 2022 on a TTM basis based on the average vechicle sales price of around $49,000 per car for Tesla.

Tesla’s Cumulative Vehicle Deliveries

Tesla's cumulative vehicle delivery

Tesla’s cumulative vehicle delivery

* Cumulative vehicle delivery numbers consist of the sum of all quarterly delivery numbers in the past.
* Cumulative vehicle delivery numbers come from the author’s own calculation.
* Tesla’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

The chart above shows Tesla’s cumulative vehicle deliveries which dated as far back as 1Q 2015.

According to the chart, Tesla reached the 1 million vehicles milestone in 2Q 2020.

As of fiscal 3Q 2022, Tesla’s total vehicle sales have exceeded 3 million units cumulatively and is expected to reach 3.6 million in 4Q 2022.

Tesla’s Vehicle Deliveries Quarterly Growth Rates

Tesla's vehicle delivery QoQ growth rates

Tesla’s vehicle delivery QoQ growth rates

* Quarterly growth rates come from the author’s own calculation based on the quarterly vehicle delivery data.
* Tesla’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

Tesla reported consecutive quarters of positive QoQ growth rates in 2021 and the numbers have been growing.

In fiscal Q3 2022, Tesla’s vehicle delivery QoQ growth rate totaled 35%, a first quarterly growth after having 2 consecutive quarters of decline.

In the subsequent quarter, Tesla’s quarterly growth rate may come in at 35% sequentially if Tesla were to report a vehicle sales number of around 460,000 units.

Tesla’s Vehicle Deliveries Year-On-Year Growth Rates

Tesla's vehicle delivery YoY growth rates

Tesla’s vehicle delivery YoY growth rates

* Year on year growth rates come from the author’s own calculation based on the quarterly vehicle delivery data.
* Tesla’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

As shown, Tesla’s YoY results are even more impressive compared to the quarterly figures in which nearly all results are positive.

Tesla’s YoY growth rates are accelerating in fiscal 2020 and 2021 despite the COVID-19 outbreak and supply chain crisis.

Tesla reported a YoY growth rate of 42.5% for total vehicle delivery in fiscal 3Q 2022.

If Tesla were to deliver 460k vehicles in 4Q 2022, the YoY growth rate will come to 50%.

Conclusion

In summary, Tesla’s total vehicle production and delivery figures are at record highs now.

As of Q3 2022, Tesla’s total vehicle production and sales are inching toward the 1.4 million milestones.

Going forward, these figures will most likely trend higher given the upcoming number of Gigafactory around the world, including a plant in India and Indonesia.

In terms of competition, Tesla is still pretty much way ahead of its Chinese peers and it is fast closing the gap with GM and Ford.

Therefore, Tesla is still the king of EVs as of 2022.

References and Credits

1. Financial figures in this article were referenced and obtained directly from Tesla Investor Press Release.

2. Featured images in this article are used under Creative Commons License and sourced from the following websites: Jakob Härter and Duncan Rawlinson – Duncan.co.

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Disclosure

The content in this article is for informational purposes only and is neither a recommendation nor a piece of financial advice to purchase a stock.

If you find the information in this article helpful, please consider sharing it on social media and also provide a link back to this article from any website so that more articles like this one can be created in the future. Thank you!

{ 2 comments… add one }
  • Dan Ciborowski August 17, 2021, 5:11 am

    Thanks a lot for your detailed breakdown here.
    It has helped me but my ordering “process” into some perspective.

    I completed the order for a Model Y LR on July 11th, and was provided an estimated delivery date between August 15 and Sept 1.
    By the time I woke up the next day, the delivery date was pushed to Sept-Oct. And then again around August 12th till Oct-Nov.

    Given your numbers, in order to estimate a delivery by end of August, I assume there were roughly 145k orders placed before my own. Given this rate, Telsa would produce about 220k in Q3.
    But now given the revised timeline for my own vehicle, Tesla will only be able to produce 110k Vehicles in Q3.

    Now, Telsa states, that all purchased are completed in order that they are received… That they do not guarantee delivery dates, but that those dates are the most accurate dates they can provide. But, the Phone Reps can not clarify on how they are deteremined, which is only available to other people in the company who can not be reached. They have also stated that they deliver all vehicles in the order which purchases were placed.

    Currently Tesla is advertising the Model Y LR ordered today would be delivered in Jan (but off course, no guarantees). While a Model Y Performance is advertised as 6-8 weeks.

    This starts to feel fishy. How can someone ordering the same, but “more expensive”, version of the same vehicle receive theirs first, if all orders are completed in order.

    I think…. Tesla is cherry picking out the most profitable orders, particularly with the nearest delivery destinations, so that, despite COVID they can keep putting up these fantastic numbers.

    If Tesla goes and sets another record, selling more then 200k vehicles in Q3, the fishy smell feel like rote. As they could only achieve those numbers through some massive customer manipulation.

    Or, is the upside if we see a nearly 50% reduction in quarterly production, matching their advertised estiamtes of about 110k?

    • Kenny Chan August 17, 2021, 10:45 am

      The cherry-picking on car delivery definitely smells fishy.

      However, Tesla expects to produce 50% more cars in 2021 than in 2020, and the same for 2022.

      If Tesla can only deliver or produce 110k vehicles in Q3, be prepared for a 50% reduction in the stock price.

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