Tesla Motors. Source: Flickr Image
This article keeps track of Tesla’s quarterly vehicle production and delivery numbers for Model S, Model X, Model 3 and the new Model Y.
Other than vehicle production and delivery numbers, this article also explores a number of other statistics, including Tesla’s cumulative deliveries, trailing 12-months (TTM) and annual deliveries, automotive sales, sales comparison with Ford and GM, quarter over quarter (QoQ) and year over year (YoY) growth rates.
Without further said, let’s start with the following topics!
Tesla Vehicle Production And Delivery Topics
1. Production Capacity
2. Model 3/Y Production
3. Model S/X Production
4. Model 3/Y Delivery
5. Model S/X Delivery
6. Tesla Vs. Ford And GM
7. Tesla Vs. Nio, Xpeng And Li Auto
8. Total Vehicle Deliveries & Automotive Revenue
9. Cumulative Vehicle Deliveries
10. Quarterly Growth Rates
11. YoY Growth Rates
12. Summary
Tesla’s Production Capacity
The following table shows Tesla’s production capacity as of fiscal 4Q 2022:
| As at 31 Dec 2022 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Installed Annual Capacity | Status | ||
| Location | Model | ||
| California, USA | Model S / Model X | 100,000 | Production |
| Model 3 / Model Y | 550,000 | Production | |
| Shanghai, China | Model 3 / Model Y | 750,000 | Production |
| Berlin, Germany | Model Y | 250,000 | Production |
| Texas, USA | Model Y | 250,000 | Production |
| Cybertruck | – | Tooling | |
| Nevada, USA | Tesla Semi | – | Pilot Production |
| TBD | Roaster | – | In Development |
| Robotaxi | – | In Development | |
| India | Future Product | – | Pending Confirmation |
| Indonesia | Future Product | – | Pending Confirmation |
According to the table above, Tesla’s Model 3/Y production at the Fremont Gigafactory located in California is the largest among all factories in the U.S. and has an annual production capacity of up to 550,000 vehicles.
On the other hand, production for Model S/X at the same Gigafactory is a lot smaller and can only produce up to 100,000 vehicles on an annual basis.
Cumulatively, the total installed capacity for all models at the Fremont Gigafactory is roughly 650,000 vehicles per year.
While the Fremont Gigafactor is the largest among all in the U.S., it pales in comparison to that of China.
The Shanghai Gigafactory can produce up to 750,000 vehicles per year, making it the largest in the world.
Far from over, the Shanghai Gigafactory has been in expansion since 2021 to increase its annual production capacity.
Therefore, the current limit of 750,000 vehicles per year at the Shanghai Gigafactory may soon be increased to up to 1 million vehicles per year.
Despite the huge production capacity, Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory produces only the Model 3/Y and functions as the company’s main export hub to the world for both vehicle models.
Apart from the U.S. and China, Tesla has also been building a number of Gigafactory around the world which will work on other models such as the Model Y, Tesla Semi, Cybertruck, and Roadster.
For your information, the Berlin Gigafactory located in Germany was completed in 4Q 2021 and the factory is now rolling out the Model Y for the European market.
The production capacity at the Berlin Gigafactory is estimated at 250,000 vehicles per year.
Similarly, Tesla’s Texas Gigafactory which produces only the Model Y is estimated at 250,000 units per year.
Also, Tesla’s Nevada has already started producing the Tesla Semi and the company said that the delivery is scheduled to begin in December 2022.
As of 4Q 2022, Tesla’s total installed production capacity on a worldwide basis was close to 2 million vehicles per year.
Going forward, Tesla’s installed capacity can easily double and exceed 2 million vehicles per year when all Gigafactory, including the upcoming Gigafactory India and the Gigafactory Indonesia, is coming onboard.
In short, Tesla is on the cusp of ruling the world in the electric vehicle space!
Tesla’s Model 3/Y Production
Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y production
The chart above shows Tesla Model 3 and Model Y combined quarterly production numbers between fiscal 2017 and 2022.
For your information, Tesla has only started large-scale production of Model 3 in the second half of 2017 and Model Y in 1Q 2020.
As the chart shows, Tesla’s combined production numbers, which include both the Model 3 and Model Y, have grown tremendously over the past 5 years, reaching a record high as of 4Q 2022 at 419,000 vehicles.
Year-over-year, Tesla’s 4Q 2022 production number grew by 43%.
Since 2019, Tesla’s Model 3/Y production number grew 100% on average.
On an annual basis, Tesla’s Model 3/Y production in 2022 reached a massive 1.3 million vehicles, exceeding the 1 million thresholds for the first time in the company’s history.
Year over year, Tesla’s 2022 full-year Model 3/Y production figure grew by 44%.
Tesla’s Model S/X Production
Tesla’s Model S and Model X production
On the contrary, Tesla’s Model S and Model X productions have been sort of flat since 2016 and the figure has even declined significantly during fiscal 2019 and reached only 14,000 vehicles as of fiscal Q1 2022.
Despite having an installed capacity of 100,000 vehicles on an annual basis at the Fremont Gigafactory, Tesla produced only 24,000 Model S/X in fiscal 2021.
In fiscal 2022, Tesla’s Model S/X production stood at 72,000 vehicles by the end of the year, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 200%.
For your information, Tesla does not make any Model S/X elsewhere except at the Fremont Gigafactory in the U.S.
In the 1st quarter of 2021, Tesla’s Model S/X production was nil due to the production shift to newer models for Model S/X.
And, Tesla is slowly shifting to the newer Model S/X production line which has resulted in fewer Model S/X being produced.
For your information, Tesla’s Model S/X is considered a premium vehicle in which mass production is limited or may not be feasible.
In addition, the mass market appeal for Model S/X may not be as huge as that of Model 3/Y because of its higher price points.
As such, the Model S/X has a maximum production capacity of only 100,000 vehicles per year at the Fremont Gigafactory and is only produced in the U.S.
Over the years, Tesla has not been able to grow the production of Model S/X due primarily to the premium features of these models and of course, the exorbitant price point.
Generally speaking, the higher entry price for the Model S/X has rendered mass-market adoption of these models nearly impossible.
Tesla’s Model 3/Y Delivery
Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y delivery
On the delivery side, Tesla delivered 388,000 Model 3/Y in fiscal Q4 2022, up 31% from a year ago.
Tesla’s Model 3/Y deliveries over the past 3 years have been nothing short of extraordinary and it has been accelerating since fiscal 2020.
The appeal of the Model 3/Y to the mass market is undisputed.
Again, the massive jump in Model 3/Y deliveries since 2021 has been primarily driven by the delivery ramp at both the Shanghai Gigafactory and Fremont Gigafactory.
Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory has been adding massive numbers of Model 3/Y for the Chinese market since fiscal 2020 after its inception in 2019.
Despite the COVID-19 headwinds and the supply chain disruption, Tesla has so far managed to defy the challenges and pressed forward to deliver record vehicle sales results in 2021 and 2022.
In 2022, Tesla delivered roughly 1.25 million Model 3 and Y combined by the end of the year, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 37%.
Tesla’s Model S/X Delivery
Tesla’s Model S and Model X delivery
In contrast, Tesla delivered only 17,000 Model S and Model X in fiscal 4Q 2022 as shown in the chart above, up 46% from a year ago.
On a yearly basis, Tesla’s Model S/X delivery reached 66,705 units by the end of 2022, up 168% from 2021.
Despite the impressive delivery number reported in 2022, Tesla’s Model S/X delivery actually has been roughly flat since 2016.
On a side note, you may notice that Tesla delivered the least number of Model S/X in 1Q and 2Q 2021, a significantly small figure that was less than 3000.
This particular low delivery rate was also in line with that of the low production rate reported in the same quarters.
The reason for the low delivery rate was that Tesla was shifting the Model 3/Y to a newer model production line which resulted in fewer Model S/X being produced at that time.
When the new production line improved subsequently, Model S/X delivery also has been on a rise since 2021.
A trend worth mentioning is that Tesla’s Model S/X are considered premium models which have a price tag of roughly USD100,000.
Aside from being pricey, these models have an installed production capacity limited to only 100,000 vehicles per year as seen previously, and are produced only in the U.S. at the Fremont Gigafactory.
If Tesla were to rely on Model S/X only, it will not survive for long as mass market adoption of electric vehicles based on the Model S/X alone are not practical.
How many can afford a vehicle that costs nearly USD100,000?
Therefore, Tesla needs the Model 3/Y and possibly more to survive and grow.
Currently, Tesla has only the Model 3/Y for mass-market adoption of electric vehicles as they can be mass-produced and are cheap enough to compete with conventional vehicles.
Tesla Vs. Ford And GM In Annual Vehicle Sales
Tesla’s vehicle delivery vs. Ford and GM
The chart above shows Tesla’s vehicle sales or deliveries compared to that of Ford and General Motors on an annual basis.
The comparison in vehicle deliveries among Tesla, Ford, and GM is meant to give readers an idea of where Tesla stands in terms of car sales figures over the last several years.
According to the chart, Tesla’s vehicle sales seem awfully small when pitted against that of its bigger rivals such as Ford and GM.
For example, Tesla delivered roughly 1 million vehicles in 2021 compared to 4 million vehicle deliveries for Ford and 3 million for General Motors.
In 2021, Tesla’s total vehicle deliveries were 4X fewer than that of Ford Motor and 3X fewer than that of General Motors.
The difference was massive back in 2015 when Ford and GM delivered nearly 6 million vehicles each compared to Tesla’s small number of 50,000 vehicles.
However, Tesla is expected to be closing in on Ford and GM’s vehicle sales soon after Tesla’s delivery figure reached 1.3 million vehicles in fiscal 2022.
Tesla’s vehicle delivery is expected to rise further to 1.8 million units in 2023 based on the projected growth rate of 40% per year.
While Tesla’s vehicle sales have been rising, both Ford and General Motors also have seen their vehicle wholesales rising in 2022.
For example, in 2022, Ford Motors and General Motors are estimated to deliver 4.6 million and 2.8 million vehicles, respectively, a significantly higher number compared to that of the prior year.
Despite the impressive vehicle delivery growth rates all these years, Tesla’s figures are still much smaller compared to both Ford and General Motors.
While Tesla has delivered a much smaller vehicle figure, its market capitalization was roughly 4X higher than that of Ford and GM combined as of January 2023.
Prior to 2022, Ford and GM’s delivery figures had been on a downtrend since fiscal 2015.
In contrast, Tesla’s vehicle sales have been growing by leaps and bounds between fiscal 2015 and 2022, and that probably explains the huge market capitalization differences.
Tesla’s Vehicle Sales Vs. Nio, Xpeng And Li Auto
Tesla’s vehicle delivery vs. Chinese EV companies
While Tesla’s vehicle delivery number is far fewer than that of GM and Ford, it’s much larger compared to Chinese EV makers such as Nio, Xpeng and Li Auto as shown in the chart above.
For example, as of fiscal 4Q 2022, Tesla’s TTM vehicle delivery figure reaches more than 1.3 million vehicles while Li Auto, the biggest EV maker in China by market cap, delivered only 133,000 vehicles during the same period.
Other Chinese EV companies such as Nio and Xpeng delivered a much lower number of vehicles as of 4Q 2022 compared to Li Auto, with Nio at 122,000 units and Xpeng at 121,000 units on a TTM basis.
In fiscal 2021, all Chinese EV companies delivered only about 100,000 vehicles each compared to nearly 1 million vehicles for Tesla.
In short, Tesla outpaces all Chinese EV companies by a large margin in terms of car sales figures.
Tesla’s Vehicle Deliveries And Automotive Revenue
Tesla’s vehicle delivery and automotive revenue
The TTM plot is to smooths out all the bumps of a quarterly plot and displays a very clear trend on a long-term basis.
As seen, Tesla’s total vehicle deliveries have been on a rise over the years and reached slightly over 1.3 million vehicles as of 4Q 2022 on a TTM basis.
In the same quarter, Tesla’s automotive revenue totaled $65 billion and is expected to come in at $70 billion in 1Q 2023, up 50% from a year ago.
From a TTM perspective, Tesla’s vehicle sales growth rate has averaged around 50% since 2019.
At this growth rate, Tesla’s vehicle sales will total 1.4 million vehicles by 1Q 2023 on a TTM basis.
Similarly, Tesla’s automotive revenue is expected to come in at $70 billion by fiscal 1Q 2022 on a TTM basis based on the average vehicle sales price of around $49,000 per car for Tesla.
Tesla’s Cumulative Vehicle Deliveries
Tesla’s cumulative vehicle delivery
The chart above shows Tesla’s cumulative vehicle deliveries which date as far back as 1Q 2015.
According to the chart, Tesla reached the 1 million vehicles milestone in 2Q 2020.
As of fiscal 4Q 2022, Tesla’s total vehicle sales have reached 3.6 million units cumulatively and are expected to exceed 4 million vehicles by 1Q 2023.
Tesla’s Vehicle Deliveries Quarterly Growth Rates
Tesla’s vehicle delivery QoQ growth rates
Tesla’s vehicle delivery sequential growth rates have been quite impressive in 2022.
In fiscal Q4 2022, Tesla’s vehicle delivery QoQ growth rate clocked 18%, a second quarterly growth after having 2 consecutive quarters of decline in the first half of 2022.
In the subsequent quarter, Tesla’s quarterly growth rate may come in at 7% sequentially if Tesla were to report a vehicle sales number of around 434,000 units.
Tesla’s Vehicle Deliveries Year-On-Year Growth Rates
Tesla’s vehicle delivery YoY growth rates
As shown, Tesla’s YoY results are even more impressive compared to the quarterly figures in which nearly all results are positive.
As seen, Tesla’s vehicle sales YoY growth rates were accelerating in fiscal 2020 and 2021 despite the COVID-19 outbreak and supply chain crisis.
Tesla reported a YoY growth rate of 31% for total vehicle delivery in fiscal 4Q 2022 on the back of a delivery figure of 405,000 units.
If Tesla were to deliver 434k vehicles in 1Q 2023, the YoY growth rate will come to 40%, a seemingly conservative number compared to its historical average growth rate of 66%.
Conclusion
In summary, Tesla’s total vehicle production and delivery figures are at record highs now.
As of 4Q 2022, Tesla’s total vehicle production and sales are exceeding the 1 million milestones on an annual basis for the first time.
Going forward, these figures will most likely trend higher given the upcoming number of Gigafactory around the world, including a plant in India and Indonesia.
In terms of competition, Tesla is still pretty much way ahead of its Chinese peers and it is fast closing the gap with GM and Ford.
Therefore, Tesla is still the king of EVs as of 2022.
References and Credits
1. Financial figures in this article were referenced and obtained directly from Tesla Investor Press Release.
2. Featured images in this article are used under Creative Commons License and sourced from the following websites: Jakob Härter and Duncan Rawlinson – Duncan.co.
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Thanks a lot for your detailed breakdown here.
It has helped me but my ordering “process” into some perspective.
I completed the order for a Model Y LR on July 11th, and was provided an estimated delivery date between August 15 and Sept 1.
By the time I woke up the next day, the delivery date was pushed to Sept-Oct. And then again around August 12th till Oct-Nov.
Given your numbers, in order to estimate a delivery by end of August, I assume there were roughly 145k orders placed before my own. Given this rate, Telsa would produce about 220k in Q3.
But now given the revised timeline for my own vehicle, Tesla will only be able to produce 110k Vehicles in Q3.
Now, Telsa states, that all purchased are completed in order that they are received… That they do not guarantee delivery dates, but that those dates are the most accurate dates they can provide. But, the Phone Reps can not clarify on how they are deteremined, which is only available to other people in the company who can not be reached. They have also stated that they deliver all vehicles in the order which purchases were placed.
Currently Tesla is advertising the Model Y LR ordered today would be delivered in Jan (but off course, no guarantees). While a Model Y Performance is advertised as 6-8 weeks.
This starts to feel fishy. How can someone ordering the same, but “more expensive”, version of the same vehicle receive theirs first, if all orders are completed in order.
I think…. Tesla is cherry picking out the most profitable orders, particularly with the nearest delivery destinations, so that, despite COVID they can keep putting up these fantastic numbers.
If Tesla goes and sets another record, selling more then 200k vehicles in Q3, the fishy smell feel like rote. As they could only achieve those numbers through some massive customer manipulation.
Or, is the upside if we see a nearly 50% reduction in quarterly production, matching their advertised estiamtes of about 110k?
The cherry-picking on car delivery definitely smells fishy.
However, Tesla expects to produce 50% more cars in 2021 than in 2020, and the same for 2022.
If Tesla can only deliver or produce 110k vehicles in Q3, be prepared for a 50% reduction in the stock price.