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Tracking Tesla Vehicle Production and Deliveries Numbers

Tesla Motors. Source: Flickr Image

This article keeps track of Tesla’s quarterly production and deliveries numbers for all of its flagship electric vehicles, including the Model S, Model X, Model 3 and the new Model Y.

Other than vehicle production and delivery numbers, this article also explores a number of other statistics, including the cumulative deliveries, trailing 12-months (TTM) deliveries, automotive sales, quarter over quarter (QoQ) and year over year (YoY) growth rates of total vehicle delivery over multiple quarters.

Tesla’s Production Capacity

The following snapshot shows Tesla’s production capacity as of 4Q 2020:

Tesla production capacity 4Q 2020. Source: Tesla 4Q update letter.

Based on the snapshot above, Tesla’s Model 3/Y production at the Fremont Gigafactory has an installed capacity of up to 500,000 vehicles but that doesn’t mean Tesla can ramp the production to this number.

There are a number of factors that can affect the production rate, including the pace of factory ramp, supply chain ramp, factory downtime related to upgrades, etc.

Additionally, Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y production has also started in the Shanghai Gigafactory and the combined production capacity is up to 450,000 vehicles per year based on the snapshot above.

According to Tesla’s press released, the 1st delivery of Model Y is expected in 1Q 2021 at the Shanghai Gigafactory.

Tesla is also building a number of Gigafactory around the world which will work on other models such as the Tesla Semi, Cybertruck and Roadster.

The Berlin Gigafactory construction is in progress and as soon as the construction is completed, the factory will roll out the Model Y for the European market.

In short, Tesla is taking over the world!

Chart of Tesla’s Model 3/Y Production

Tesla Model 3/Y production

Tesla Model 3/Y production

*Model Y production started only in 1Q 2020.

The chart above shows Tesla Model 3 and Model Y combined quarterly production numbers between 2017 and 2021.

For your information, Tesla has only started large scale production of Model 3 in the second half of 2017 and Model Y in 1Q 2020.

As the chart shows, the combined production numbers, Tesla’s Model 3 and subsequently Model Y which started in Jan 2020, have grown tremendously over the past 3 years, reaching a record high in 4Q 2020 at 163,660 vehicles.

On a year over year basis, the 4Q 2020 production result represents a growth of more than 100% compared to the corresponding quarter a year earlier.

Tesla does not break down the Model 3 and Model Y production numbers.

Nevertheless, my guess is that the massive jump in Model 3/Y production in 2020 4Q has been largely driven by the Model 3 production ramp at the Shanghai Gigafactory.

Additionally, the debut of Model Y at the Fremont and Shanghai Gigafactory has also helped to boost the overall production rates.

Chart of Tesla’s Model S/X Production

Tesla Model S/X production

Tesla Model S/X production

On the contrary, Tesla’s Model S and Model X productions have been sort of flat since 2016 and the figure has even declined significantly during 2019, recording only slightly more than 15,000 vehicles produced in Q1 2020.

The Model S/X production number has gone downhill in 2Q 2020 when the reported production number plunged to only 6,326, representing a QoQ and YoY decline of 59% and 56%, respectively.

However, Tesla’s Model S/X production recovered in 3Q and 4Q 2020 to 17,000 and 16,000 vehicles respectively, a level which was only seen about a year ago.

Tesla’s Model S/X is considered a premium vehicle in which mass production is limited.

As such, you can notice that the installed production capacity at the Fremont Gigafactory is only 90,000 vehicles per year for the Model S/X.

Over the years, Tesla has not been able to grow the production of Model S/X due primarily to the premium features of these models.

Additionally, the higher price point for the Model S/X has rendered mass-market adoption nearly impossible.

Chart of Tesla’s Model 3/Y Delivery

Tesla Model 3/Y delivery

Tesla Model 3/Y delivery

*Model Y deliveries started only in 2Q 2020.

Tesla delivered an exceptional figure of 161,650 Model 3/Y in Q4 2020, representing a YoY increase of 75%.

Tesla’s Model 3/Y deliveries over the past 3 years have been nothing short of extraordinary.

Again, the massive jump in vehicle deliveries in 2020 4Q may have been driven largely by the Model 3 delivery ramp at the Shanghai Gigafactory, which has added a massive number of Model 3 for the Chinese market.

Despite the COVID-19 headwind throughout most of 2020 which has caused some of Tesla’s factories shutdowns, Tesla managed to defy the challenges and moved forward to deliver exceptional results throughout 2020.

Cumulatively, Tesla has so far delivered nearly 900,000 Model 3 and Y combined since the start of the Model 3 program 3 years ago.

Chart of Tesla’s Model S/X Delivery

Tesla Model S/X delivery

Tesla Model S/X delivery

In contrast, Tesla delivered only 18,920 Model S and Model X in 4Q 2020 as shown in the chart above, representing a YoY and QoQ growth of -3% and 24% respectively.

Tesla’s Model S/X deliveries averaged about 25,000 vehicles per quarter prior to 2019 but the figure dropped drastically since 2019 with an average figure of only 15,000 vehicles per quarter.

Tesla has shifted its focus to the Model 3/Y since 2019 due primarily to the mass production capability of these models.

As mentioned, Tesla’s Model S/X are considered premium models in which the installed production capacity is limited to only 90,000 vehicles per year.

Currently, the Model S/X is produced only at the Fremont Gigafactory in the U.S., and these vehicles are exported globally to other countries.

Tesla’s Total Vehicle Deliveries (Quarterly)

Tesla total vehicle delivery (quarterly)

Tesla total vehicle delivery (quarterly)

The chart above shows Tesla’s total vehicle deliveries and the respective automotive revenue on a quarterly basis.

Automotive revenues includes Tesla’s automotive sales and leasing revenues recognized when vehicles are delivered.

On the flipped side, energy product revenues, including the sales of Powerwall, Powerpack and solar energy generation are excluded from automotive revenue.

Thus, solar sales are not measured in the chart above.

Based on the chart, Tesla’s automotive revenue is closely correlated with total vehicle delivery numbers throughout all reporting periods.

In 2020 Q4, Tesla’s total vehicle deliveries stood at 180,570 vehicles, representing a comparable growth rate of more than 60%.

Tesla’s automotive revenue reached more than $7 billion in 3Q 2020.

Tesla’s Total Vehicle Deliveries (TTM)

Tesla total vehicle delivery (TTM)

Tesla total vehicle delivery (TTM)

On a trailing 12-months (TTM) basis, Tesla’s total vehicle deliveries reached nearly 500,000 vehicles in 2020 Q4, an all-time high since 2015.

Similarly, Tesla’s automotive revenue surged to $24 billion in 3Q 2020 on a TTM basis, also an all-time high since 2015.

On an annual basis, Tesla’s total vehicle deliveries in 2020 totaled as many as 500,000 units, a figure that meets the company’s 2020 delivery target.

Tesla’s Cumulative Vehicle Deliveries

Tesla cumulative vehicle delivery

Tesla cumulative vehicle delivery

The chart above shows Tesla’s cumulative vehicle deliveries which dated as far back as 1Q 2015.

Tesla reached the 1 million vehicles milestone in 2Q 2020.

As of 4Q 2020, Tesla has delivered more than 1.3 million vehicles in total since IPO.

Tesla’s Vehicle Deliveries Quarterly Growth Rate

Tesla vehicle delivery QoQ growth

Tesla vehicle delivery QoQ growth

The chart above shows Tesla’s quarter over quarter (QoQ) growth rate for total vehicle deliveries between 2015 and 2020.

In Q4 2020, Tesla reported a QoQ growth rate of nearly 30% for total vehicle deliveries.

The outstanding delivery result in 2020 4Q was largely driven by the ramp in Model 3 delivery in China after the completion of the Gigafactory Shanghai, and also partly by the ramp of the Model Y in the Fremont Gigafactory.

Tesla’s Vehicle Deliveries Year On Year Growth Rate

Tesla vehicle delivery YoY growth

Tesla vehicle delivery YoY growth

The chart above represents Tesla’s total vehicle delivery year on year (YoY) growth rate from 2016 to 2020.

As shown, the YoY results are even more impressive compared to the quarterly results in which nearly all quarterly results were positive.

Tesla reported a YoY growth rate of 61% for total vehicle delivery in 4Q 2020, which is nothing short of extraordinary despite the COVID-19 challenges throughout 2020.

Conclusion

In summary, Tesla’s total vehicle production and delivery will most likely inch higher significantly in the coming years, considering that the company will run at full throttle in terms of production for Model 3/Model Y at the Fremont and Shanghai Gigafactory as well as the coming Berlin Gigafactory.

References and Credits

1. Production and delivery figures in this article were referenced and obtained directly from Tesla Investor Press Release.

2. Featured images in this article are used under Creative Commons License and sourced from the following websites: Jakob Härter and Duncan Rawlinson – Duncan.co.

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