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Tracking Tesla Vehicle Production and Deliveries Numbers

Tesla Motors. Source: Flickr Image

This article keeps track of Tesla’s quarterly vehicle production and deliveries numbers for Model S, Model X, Model 3 and the new Model Y.

Other than vehicle production and delivery numbers, this article also explores a number of other statistics, including Tesla’s cumulative deliveries, trailing 12-months (TTM) and annual deliveries, automotive sales, sales comparison with Ford and GM, quarter over quarter (QoQ) and year over year (YoY) growth rates.

Let’s look at the following topics!

Tesla’s Production Capacity

The following snapshot shows Tesla’s production capacity as of fiscal 3Q 2021:

Installed Annual Capacity Current Status
California Model S / Model X 100,000 Production
Model 3 / Model Y 500,000 Production
Shanghai Model 3 / Model Y >450,000 Production
Berlin Model Y Construction
Texas Model Y Construction
Cybertruck In development
TBD Tesla Semi In development
Roaster In development
India Future Product Pending confirmation
Indonesia Future Product Pending confirmation

* Installed capacity ≠ current production rate and there may be limitations discovered as production rates approach capacity.
* Production rates depend on a variety of factors, including equipment uptime, component supply, downtime related to factory upgrades, regulatory considerations and other factors.
* Tesla production capacity 3Q 2021. Source: Tesla 3Q update letter.

Based on the table above, Tesla’s Model 3/Y production at the Fremont Gigafactory has an annual installed capacity of up to 500,000 vehicles but that doesn’t mean Tesla can ramp the production to this number.

Installed annual capacity for Model S/X is limited to only 100,000 vehicles at the Fremont Gigafactory, a significantly smaller figure compared to that of Model 3/Y.

Similarly, Tesla’s annual production capacity at the Shanghai Gigafactory is now greater than 450,000 vehicles as of 3Q 2021.

The production number at the Shanghai Gigafactory will be significantly higher when the ongoing expansion is completed.

However, Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory produces only the Model 3/Y instead of all models.

Tesla is also building a number of Gigafactory around the world which will work on other models such as the Tesla Semi, Cybertruck and Roadster.

The Berlin Gigafactory construction is in progress and as soon as the construction is completed, the factory will roll out the Model Y for the European market.

As of 3Q 2021, Tesla’s installed production capacity is slightly over 1 million vehicles per year.

Going forward, Tesla’s installed capacity can easily double and exceed 2 million vehicles per year when all Gigafactory, including the upcoming Gigafactory India and the Gigafactory Indonesia, are coming onboard.

In short, Tesla is on the cusp of ruling the EV space!

Tesla’s Model 3/Y Production

Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y production

Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y production

* Model Y production started only in 1Q 2020.
* Model 3/Y production numbers are obtained directly from Tesla’s press releases.
* Tesla’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

The chart above shows Tesla Model 3 and Model Y combined quarterly production numbers between fiscal 2017 and 2021.

For your information, Tesla has only started large-scale production of Model 3 in the second half of 2017 and Model Y in 1Q 2020.

As the chart shows, Tesla’s combined production numbers, which include both the Model 3 and Model Y, have grown tremendously over the past 3 years, reaching a record high in 4Q 2021 at nearly 300,000 vehicles.

Year over year, Tesla’s 3Q 2021 production number grew by nearly 80%.

According to the chart, Tesla’s Model 3/Y production accelerated the most since fiscal 2020 as a result of the company’s aggressive expansion on a global scale.

In this aspect, Tesla’s Model 3/Y production capacity has now reached 1 million vehicles per year with the completion of the Shanghai Gigafactory.

Tesla plans to further expand the Shanghai Gigafactory’s capacity beyond the 500,000 vehicles on an annual basis.

At this production rate, Tesla’s 2022 production for Model 3/Y on a global level can easily exceed 1 million units.

Tesla’s Model S/X Production

Tesla's Model S and Model X production

Tesla’s Model S and Model X production

* Model S/X production numbers are obtained directly from Tesla’s press releases.
* Tesla’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

On the contrary, Tesla’s Model S and Model X productions have been sort of flat since 2016 and the figure has even declined significantly during fiscal 2019 and reached only 13,000 vehicles as of fiscal Q3 2021.

Despite having an installed capacity of 100,000 vehicles on an annual basis at the Fremont Gigafactory, Tesla produced only 24,000 Model S/X in fiscal 2021.

For your information, Tesla does not make any Model S/X elsewhere except at the Fremont Gigafactory in the U.S.

In the 1st quarter, Tesla’s Model S/X production was nil due to the production shift to newer models for Model S/X.

And, Tesla is slowly shifting to the newer Model S/X production line which has resulted in fewer Model S/X being produced.

For your information, Tesla’s Model S/X is considered a premium vehicle in which mass production is limited or may not be feasible.

In addition, the mass market appeal for Model S/X may not be as huge as that of Model 3/Y because of its higher price points.

As such, the Model S/X has a maximum production capacity of only 100,000 vehicles per year at the Fremont Gigafactory and is only produced in the U.S.

Over the years, Tesla has not been able to grow the production of Model S/X due primarily to the premium features of these models and of course, the exorbitant price point.

Generally speaking, the higher entry price for the Model S/X has rendered mass-market adoption of these models nearly impossible.

Tesla’s Model 3/Y Delivery

Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y delivery

Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y delivery

* Model Y delivery started only in 2Q 2020.
* Model 3/Y delivery numbers are obtained directly from Tesla’s press releases.
* Tesla’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

On the delivery side, Tesla delivered nearly 300,000 Model 3/Y in fiscal Q3 2021, up 84% from a year ago.

Tesla’s Model 3/Y deliveries over the past 3 years have been nothing short of extraordinary and it has been accelerating since fiscal 2020.

The appeal of the Model 3/Y to the mass market is undisputed.

Again, the massive jump in Model 3/Y deliveries in 2021 3Q on a year-on-year basis has been primarily driven by the delivery ramp at both the Shanghai Gigafactory and the Fremont Gigafactory.

Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory has been adding massive numbers of Model 3/Y for the Chinese market since fiscal 2020 after its inception in 2019.

Despite the COVID-19 headwinds and the microchip disruption, Tesla has so far managed to defy the challenges and pressed forward to deliver record vehicle sales results in 2021.

Cumulatively, Tesla has delivered close to 2 million Model 3 and Y combined as of 2021 Q4 since the start of the Model 3 product 3 years ago.

Tesla’s Model S/X Delivery

Tesla's Model S and Model X delivery

Tesla’s Model S and Model X delivery

* Model S/X delivery numbers are obtained directly from Tesla’s press releases.
* Tesla’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

In contrast, Tesla delivered only 12,000 Model S and Model X in fiscal 4Q 2021 as shown in the chart above, down 38% from a year ago.

Tesla’s Model S/X deliveries averaged about 25,000 vehicles per quarter prior to 2019 but the figure dropped drastically since 2019 with an average figure of only 15,000 vehicles per quarter delivered.

And, Tesla has delivered only 25,000 Model S/X in 2021, a significantly lower number from its historical highs.

Over the chart, you may notice that Tesla’s Model S/X delivery has been going downhill steadily and the downtrend has accelerated in 2021.

The downtrend is sort of expected as Tesla has shifted its focus to the Model 3/Y since 2019 due primarily to the mass production capability of these models.

As mentioned, Tesla’s Model S/X are considered premium models in which the installed production capacity is limited to only 100,000 vehicles per year compared to the 500,000 installed capacity for Model 3/Y per Gigafactory.

Tesla won’t survive on Model S/X alone as these models sell for nearly USD100,000 per piece.

How many can afford a vehicle that costs nearly USD100,000?

Therefore, Tesla needs the Model 3/Y to survive and grow.

Currently, the Model S/X are produced only at the Fremont Gigafactory in the U.S., and these vehicles are exported globally to other countries.

Tesla Vs. Ford And GM in Annual Vehicle Sales

Tesla's vehicle delivery vs. Ford and GM

Tesla’s vehicle delivery vs. Ford and GM

* Tesla’s 2021 vehicle delivery numbers are projected based on 50% year-on-year growth rate.
* Ford’s 2021 vehicle delivery numbers are up to only 3Q 2021 results.
* GM’s 2021 vehicle delivery numbers are are to only 3Q 2021 results.
* All companies’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

The chart above shows Tesla’s vehicle sales or deliveries compared to that of Ford and General Motors on an annual basis.

The comparison in vehicle deliveries among Tesla, Ford and GM is meant to give readers an idea of where Tesla stands in terms of car sales figures over the last several years.

According to the chart, Tesla’s vehicle sales seem awfully small when pitted against that of its bigger rivals such as Ford and GM.

For example, Tesla delivered only half a million vehicles in 2020 compared to 4 million vehicle deliveries for Ford and 3.4 million for General Motors.

In 2020, Tesla’s total vehicle deliveries were 8X fewer than that of Ford Motor and 7X fewer than that of General Motors.

The difference was even bigger back in 2015 where Ford and GM delivered nearly 6 million vehicles each compared to Tesla’s 50,000 vehicles.

However, Tesla is expected to be closing in on Ford and GM’s vehicle sales when Tesla’s delivery figure is projected to reach 1.5 million vehicles in fiscal 2022.

While Tesla’s vehicle delivery is much smaller compared to Ford and GM, its market capitalization is roughly 8X higher than that of Ford and GM combined as of Jan 2022.

Despite the larger vehicle sales, Ford and GM have been seeing their figures trending lower since fiscal 2015 and the numbers are expected to go even lower in fiscal 2022, driven by a multitude of issues, including the microchip shortages.

In contrast, Tesla’s vehicle sales have been growing by leaps and bounds between fiscal 2015 and 2021, and that probably explains the huge market capitalization differences.

Tesla’s Vehicle Sales Vs. Nio, Xpeng And Li Auto

Tesla's vehicle delivery vs. Chinese EV companies

Tesla’s vehicle delivery vs. Chinese EV companies

* Vehicle delivery data is presented on a TTM basis and the quarterly data is obtained directly from the companies’ press releases.
* TTM data is the sum of the quarterly data on a trailing 12-month or 4-quarter basis.
* All companies’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

While Tesla’s vehicle delivery number is far fewer than that of GM and Ford, it’s at the top when compared to Chinese EV makers such as Nio, Xpeng and Li Auto as shown in the chart above.

For example, as of fiscal 4Q 2021, Tesla’s TTM vehicle delivery figure reaches more than 900,000 vehicles while Nio, the biggest EV maker in China by market cap, delivered only 91,000 vehicles during the same period.

Other Chinese EV companies such as Xpeng and Li Auto delivered about the same numbers of vehicles as of 4Q 2021 compared to Nio, with Xpeng at a slightly higher figure of 98,000 units on a TTM basis.

Therefore, all Chinese EV companies delivered about 100,000 vehicles each in fiscal 2021.

In short, Tesla outpaces all Chinese EV companies by a large margin in terms of car sales figures.

Tesla’s Vehicle Deliveries And Automotive Revenue

Tesla's vehicle delivery and automotive revenue

Tesla’s vehicle delivery and automotive revenue

* Automotive revenue and vehicle delivery data shown in the chart above is presented on a TTM basis.
* TTM data is calculated based on the sum of quarterly data on a trailing 12-month or 4-quarter basis.
* Tesla’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

The TTM plot is to smooth out all the bumps of a quarterly plot and display a very clear trend on a long-term basis.

That said, Tesla’s total vehicle deliveries have been surging and reached nearly 1,000,000 vehicles as of 4Q 2021 on a TTM basis.

In the same quarter, Tesla’s automotive revenue is expected to total $47 billion, up 70% from a year ago.

At a growth rate that averages around 50%, Tesla’s vehicle sales will exceed 1 million vehicles by fiscal 1Q 2022 and top 1.2 million vehicles by fiscal 2Q 2022 on a TTM basis.

Similarly, Tesla’s automotive revenue is expected to exceed $45 billion by fiscal 1Q 2021 and $55 billion by fiscal 2Q 2022 on a TTM basis.

Tesla’s Cumulative Vehicle Deliveries

Tesla's cumulative vehicle delivery

Tesla’s cumulative vehicle delivery

* Cumulative vehicle delivery numbers consist of the sum of all quarterly delivery numbers in the past.
* Cumulative vehicle delivery numbers come from the author’s own calculation.
* Tesla’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

The chart above shows Tesla’s cumulative vehicle deliveries which dated as far back as 1Q 2015.

According to the chart, Tesla reached the 1 million vehicles milestone in 2Q 2020.

As of fiscal 4Q 2021, Tesla’s total vehicle sales have exceeded 2 million units cumulatively.

By fiscal 1Q 2022, Tesla’s total vehicle delivery is estimated to reach 2.5 million vehicles and nearly 3 million vehicles cumulatively by fiscal 2Q 2022.

Tesla’s Vehicle Deliveries Quarterly Growth Rates

Tesla's vehicle delivery QoQ growth rates

Tesla’s vehicle delivery QoQ growth rates

* Quarterly growth rates come from the author’s own calculation based on the quarterly vehicle delivery data.
* Tesla’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

Tesla reported consecutive quarters of positive QoQ growth rates in 2021 and the numbers have been growing.

In fiscal Q4 2021, Tesla’s vehicle delivery QoQ growth rate totaled 28%, one of the highest ever reported by the company.

Tesla’s Vehicle Deliveries Year-On-Year Growth Rates

Tesla's vehicle delivery YoY growth rates

Tesla’s vehicle delivery YoY growth rates

* Year on year growth rates come from the author’s own calculation based on the quarterly vehicle delivery data.
* Tesla’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

As shown, Tesla’s YoY results are even more impressive compared to the quarterly figures in which nearly all results are positive.

Tesla’s YoY growth rates are accelerating in fiscal 2020 and 2021 despite having the COVID-19 outbreak and chip crisis.

Tesla reported a YoY growth rate of 71% for total vehicle delivery in fiscal 4Q 2021, one of the best results achieved by the company since 2020.

Conclusion

In summary, Tesla’s total vehicle production and delivery figures are at record highs now.

As of Q4 2021, Tesla’s total vehicle production and sales have inched towards the 1 million thresholds.

Going forward, these figures will most likely trend higher given the upcoming number of Gigafactory around the world, including a plant in India and Indonesia.

In terms of competition, Tesla is still pretty much way ahead of its Chinese peers and it is fast closing the gap with GM and Ford.

Therefore, Tesla is still the king of EVs as of 2021.

References and Credits

1. Financial figures in this article were referenced and obtained directly from Tesla Investor Press Release.

2. Featured images in this article are used under Creative Commons License and sourced from the following websites: Jakob Härter and Duncan Rawlinson – Duncan.co.

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Disclosure

The content in this article is for informational purposes only and is neither a recommendation nor a piece of financial advice to purchase a stock.

If you find the information in this article helpful, please consider sharing it on social media and also provide a link back to this article from any website so that more articles like this one can be created in the future. Thank you!

{ 2 comments… add one }
  • Dan Ciborowski August 17, 2021, 5:11 am

    Thanks a lot for your detailed breakdown here.
    It has helped me but my ordering “process” into some perspective.

    I completed the order for a Model Y LR on July 11th, and was provided an estimated delivery date between August 15 and Sept 1.
    By the time I woke up the next day, the delivery date was pushed to Sept-Oct. And then again around August 12th till Oct-Nov.

    Given your numbers, in order to estimate a delivery by end of August, I assume there were roughly 145k orders placed before my own. Given this rate, Telsa would produce about 220k in Q3.
    But now given the revised timeline for my own vehicle, Tesla will only be able to produce 110k Vehicles in Q3.

    Now, Telsa states, that all purchased are completed in order that they are received… That they do not guarantee delivery dates, but that those dates are the most accurate dates they can provide. But, the Phone Reps can not clarify on how they are deteremined, which is only available to other people in the company who can not be reached. They have also stated that they deliver all vehicles in the order which purchases were placed.

    Currently Tesla is advertising the Model Y LR ordered today would be delivered in Jan (but off course, no guarantees). While a Model Y Performance is advertised as 6-8 weeks.

    This starts to feel fishy. How can someone ordering the same, but “more expensive”, version of the same vehicle receive theirs first, if all orders are completed in order.

    I think…. Tesla is cherry picking out the most profitable orders, particularly with the nearest delivery destinations, so that, despite COVID they can keep putting up these fantastic numbers.

    If Tesla goes and sets another record, selling more then 200k vehicles in Q3, the fishy smell feel like rote. As they could only achieve those numbers through some massive customer manipulation.

    Or, is the upside if we see a nearly 50% reduction in quarterly production, matching their advertised estiamtes of about 110k?

    • Kenny Chan August 17, 2021, 10:45 am

      The cherry-picking on car delivery definitely smells fishy.

      However, Tesla expects to produce 50% more cars in 2021 than in 2020, and the same for 2022.

      If Tesla can only deliver or produce 110k vehicles in Q3, be prepared for a 50% reduction in the stock price.

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