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Tracking Tesla Vehicle Production and Deliveries Numbers

Tesla Motors. Source: Flickr Image

This article keeps track of Tesla’s quarterly production and deliveries numbers for all of its flagship electric vehicles, including the Model S, Model X, Model 3 and the new Model Y.

Other than vehicle production and delivery numbers, we will also look at a number of statistics such as the cumulative deliveries, trailing 12-months (TTM) deliveries, automotive sales, quarter over quarter (QoQ) and year over year (YoY) growth rates of total vehicle delivery over multiple quarters.

2Q 2020 Quarterly Highlights

An important milestone for Tesla in 2020 was that the Model Y production has already started in January 2020 in the Fremont Gigafactory and deliveries for the new model would begin in 1Q/2Q 2020, according to Tesla’s 1Q and 2Q Update Letter.

The following snapshot shows Tesla’s production capacity as of 2Q 2020:

Tesla installed production capacity

Tesla installed production capacity as of 2Q 2020. Source: Tesla 2Q update letter.

Based on the snapshot above, Tesla’s Model 3/Y production at the Fremont Gigafactory has an installed capacity of 400,000 vehicles and will extend to 500,000 vehicles per year by the end of 2020.

Additionally, the Model 3 production has already started in the Shanghai Gigafactory whereas the Model Y production is still under construction. The 1st delivery of Model Y is expected in 2021 at the Shanghai Gigafactory.

Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory has an installed production capacity of only 200,000 Model 3/Y per year, less than half of its counterpart in Fremont, USA.

Tesla is also building a number of Gigafactory around the world which will work on other models such as the Tesla Semi, Cybertruck and Roadster.

The Berlin Gigafactory construction is in progress and as soon as the construction is completed, the factory will roll out the Model 3 and Model Y for the European market.

In short, Tesla is taking over the world!

Chart of Tesla’s Model 3/Y Production

Tesla Model 3/Y production

Tesla Model 3/Y production

*Model Y production started only in 1Q 2020.

The chart above shows Tesla Model 3 and Model Y combined quarterly production numbers between 2017 and 2020.

For your information, Tesla has only started large scale production of Model 3 in the second half of 2017 and Model Y in 1Q 2020.

As the chart shows, the combined production numbers, Tesla’s Model 3 and subsequently Model Y which started in Jan 2020, have grown tremendously over the past 3 years, reaching a record high in 3Q 2020 at 128,000 vehicles.

On a year over year basis, the 3Q 2020 production result represents a growth of nearly 60% compared to the corresponding quarter a year earlier.

Tesla does not break down the Model 3 and Model Y production numbers.

Nevertheless, my guess is that the massive jump in Model 3/Y production in 3Q 2020 was largely driven by the Model 3 production at the Shanghai Gigafactory as well as the Model Y production at the Fremont Gigafactory which has only started in 1Q 2020.

Chart of Tesla’s Model S/X Production

Tesla Model S/X production

Tesla Model S/X production

On the contrary, Tesla’s Model S and Model X productions have been sort of flat since 2016 and the figure has even declined significantly during 2019, recording only slightly more than 15,000 vehicles produced in Q1 2020.

The Model S/X production number has gone downhill in 2Q 2020 when the reported production number plunged to only 6,326, representing a QoQ and YoY decline of 59% and 56%, respectively.

However, Tesla’s Model S/X production came back up in 3Q 2020 to nearly 17,000 vehicles, representing a QoQ growth of nearly 100%.

Tesla’s Model S/X is considered a premium vehicle in which mass production is limited. As such, the installed production capacity at the Fremont Gigafactory is only 90,000 vehicles per year.

Over the years, Tesla has not been able to grow the production of Model S/X due primarily to the premium features of these models.

Additionally, the higher price point for the Model S/X has rendered mass-market adoption nearly impossible.

Chart of Tesla’s Model 3/Y Delivery

Tesla Model 3/Y delivery

Tesla Model 3/Y delivery

*Model Y deliveries started only in 2Q 2020.

Tesla delivered an exceptional figure of 124,100 vehicles in 3Q 2020, representing a YoY increase of 55%.

Tesla’s Model 3/Y deliveries over the past 3 years have been nothing short of extraordinary.

Again, the massive jump in vehicle deliveries in 3Q 2020 may have been driven largely by the Model 3 delivery at the Shanghai Gigafactory.

Despite the COVID-19 headwind throughout most of 2020 which has caused some of Tesla’s factories shutdowns, Tesla managed to defy the challenges and moved forward to deliver exceptional results throughout 2020.

Chart of Tesla’s Model S/X Delivery

Tesla Model S/X delivery

Tesla Model S/X delivery

In contrast, Tesla delivered only 15,200 Model S and Model X in 3Q 2020 as shown in the chart above.

Tesla’s Model S/X deliveries averaged about 25,000 vehicles per quarter prior to 2019 but the figure dropped drastically since 2019 with an average figure of only 15,000 vehicles per quarter.

Tesla has shifted its focus to the Model 3/Y since 2019 due primarily to the mass production capability of these models.

As mentioned, Tesla’s Model S/X are considered premium models in which the installed production capacity is limited to only 90,000 vehicles per year.

Currently, the Model S/X is produced only at the Fremont Gigafactory in the U.S., and these vehicles are exported internationally to other countries.

Tesla’s Total Vehicle Deliveries (Quarterly)

Tesla total vehicle deliveries (quarterly)

Tesla total vehicle deliveries (quarterly)

The chart above shows Tesla’s total vehicle deliveries and the respective automotive revenue on a quarterly basis.

Automotive revenues includes automotive sales and leasing revenues recognized when vehicles are delivered.

On the flipped side, energy product revenues, including the sales of Powerwall, Powerpack and solar energy generation are excluded from automotive revenue.

Thus, energy product revenues are not measured in the chart above.

Based on the chart, Tesla’s automotive revenue is closely correlated with total vehicle delivery numbers throughout all reporting periods.

In 2020 Q3, Tesla’s total vehicle deliveries stood at 139,300 vehicles, representing a comparable growth rate of 44%.

Tesla’s automotive revenue reached more than $5 billion in 2Q 2020.

Tesla’s Total Vehicle Deliveries (TTM)

Tesla total vehicle deliveries (TTM)

Tesla total vehicle deliveries (TTM)

On a trailing 12-months (TTM) basis, Tesla’s total vehicle deliveries reached 430,000 vehicles in 2020 Q3, an all-time high since 2015.

Similarly, Tesla’s automotive revenue reached $22 billion in 2Q 2020 on a TTM basis, also an all-time high since 2015.

Tesla’s Cumulative Vehicle Deliveries

Tesla cumulative vehicle deliveries 3Q 2020

Tesla cumulative vehicle deliveries 3Q 2020

The chart above shows Tesla’s cumulative vehicle deliveries which dated as far back as 1Q 2015.

Tesla reached the 1 million vehicles milestone in 2Q 2020.

As of 3Q 2020, Tesla has delivered nearly 1.2 million vehicles since its inception.

Tesla’s Vehicle Deliveries Quarterly Growth Rate

Tesla vehicle delivery QoQ growth rates

Tesla vehicle delivery QoQ growth rates

The chart above shows Tesla’s quarter over quarter (QoQ) growth rate for total vehicle deliveries between 2015 and 2020.

In Q3 2020, Tesla reported a QoQ growth rate of 54% for total vehicle deliveries.

The growth in vehicle delivery in 2020 3Q was largely driven by the ramp in Model 3 delivery in China after the completion of the Gigafactory Shanghai.

Tesla’s Vehicle Deliveries Year On Year Growth Rate

Tesla vehicle delivery YoY growth rates

Tesla vehicle delivery YoY growth rates

The chart above represents Tesla’s total vehicle delivery year on year (YoY) growth rate from 2016 to 2020.

As shown, the YoY results are even more impressive compared to the quarterly results in which nearly all quarterly results were positive.

Tesla reported a YoY growth rate of 44% for total vehicle delivery in 3Q 2020, which is nothing short of extraordinary despite the COVID-19 challenges.

Conclusion

In summary, Tesla’s total vehicle production and delivery will most likely inch higher significantly in the coming years, considering that the company will run at full throttle in terms of production for Model 3/Model Y at the Fremont and Shanghai Gigafactory as well as the coming Berlin Gigafactory.

References and Credits

1. Production and deliveries figures in this article were referenced and obtained directly from Tesla Investor Press Release.

2. Featured images in this article are used under Creative Commons License and sourced from the following websites: Jakob Härter and Duncan Rawlinson – Duncan.co.

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