This article is keeping track of General Motors (NYSE:GM) wholesale vehicle deliveries or wholesale vehicle sales.
GM presented two types of vehicle sales or vehicle deliveries data in its annual and quarterly statements:
Let’s look at the following topics.
What Is Wholesale Vehicle Sales
According to GM, wholesale vehicle sales or wholesale vehicle deliveries are vehicles delivered to dealers or distributors, and they correlate with the sales revenue recognized in the income statements.
However, wholesale numbers do not include vehicles sold by GM’s joint ventures or affiliates such as those in China in which GM does not have a controlling interest.
Here is a quote extracted from GM’s statements regarding wholesale deliveries.
What Is Total Vehicle Sales
Total vehicle sales are retail sales and are vehicles delivered from dealers or distributors to end consumers.
Retail vehicle delivery bypasses General Motors and does not have any relationship with the company.
Total vehicle sales do not correlate with GM’s sales revenue represented in the income statements.
Here is a quote extracted from GM’s statements regarding total vehicle sales.
What Is Presented In This Article
In this article, you will find GM’s wholesale data or wholesale vehicle deliveries that correlate with the revenue presented in the annual and quarterly statements.
The wholesale data and retail sale data are vastly different.
The vehicle sales data presented on other websites may not be clearly explained whether they are wholesale or retail sales data.
Sometimes the retail sales data may not necessarily indicate the realistic nature of GM’s business condition simply because the retail sales data does not correlate with the revenue recognized in the company financial statements.
Readers who are interested in GM’s retail sales data may visit the webpage at the following link.
GM’s Wholesale Vehicle Deliveries – Yearly
Let’s first look at GM’s annual vehicle delivery which is shown in the chart above for the period between fiscal 2018 and 2021.
In fiscal 2021, GM delivered a total sum of 2.9 million vehicles in which 80% of that number or 2.3 million vehicles were from North America.
In the same fiscal year, GM International (GMI)’s vehicle delivery reached 551,000 units or 20% of the total volume.
GM’s vehicle wholesale in fiscal 2021 was the lowest since 2018 and was down 15% from fiscal 2020.
GM’s Vehicle Average Selling Price (ASP)
Since GM’s vehicle wholesale correlates closely with the recognized automotive revenue in the income statements, we can use the relationship to calculate GM’s vehicle average selling price (ASP).
According to the chart above, GM’s ASP has been on a steady rise in the last 8 years.
In fiscal 2014, GM’s ASP was only about $25k per vehicle on average.
This figure has risen to $40k per vehicle on average as of fiscal 4Q 2021.
Also, GM’s vehicle ASP rose the most in fiscal 2021 as seen in the chart above.
In fiscal 2021 alone, GM’s vehicle average selling price grew as much as 23%, notably from $32.3k reported in fiscal 4Q 2020 to $39.7k reported in 4Q 2021.
On average, GM’s ASP grew 1.7% from quarter to quarter since fiscal 2014.
GM’s Projected Vehicle Wholesale In 2022
General Motors provided a 2022 guidance for adjusted EBIT during the 4Q 2021 earnings conference.
The 2022 guidance is that the adjusted EBIT will come to between $13 billion and $15 billion.
Moreover, GM also guided for a 10% EBIT-adjusted margin in its North American operation for fiscal 2022.
Taking all these into account, the vehicle ASP which we saw earlier and a few other assumptions, including an average figure of $14 billion for GM Financial revenue as well as an 11% EBIT-adjusted margin, we can calculate GM’s vehicle delivery for fiscal 2022.
According to the chart above, GM’s vehicle wholesale for fiscal 2022 is estimated to come to about 2.8 million units, roughly in line with the number reported in fiscal 2021.
GM’s Wholesale Vehicle Deliveries – Quarterly
The chart above shows GM’s quarterly wholesale vehicle sales for the past 6 years from fiscal 2014 to 2021.
On a quarterly basis, GM’s wholesale vehicle deliveries were seen trending down over the past 8 years.
The downtrend has accelerated between 2019 and 2020, hitting a record low at about 1 million vehicles per quarter in fiscal 2020.
In fiscal 2021, the quarterly numbers keep going down and reached only 536,000 vehicles in 3Q 2021 before recovering to 742,000 vehicles in the 4th quarter.
Still, the 2021 4th quarter result represents a year-on-year decline of 27%.
GM used to deliver more than 1.5 million vehicles per quarter between fiscal 2014 and 2017.
However, those numbers have gone down significantly over the years and reached less than 1 million vehicles per quarter now, representing as much as a 50% decline.
The COVID-19 pandemic as well as the supply chain issue has probably worsened GM’s vehicle wholesale when factories are stalled and high-end electronic parts are hard to come by.
While demands for GM’s vehicles have recovered slightly in the 2nd half of fiscal 2020, the numbers have gone lower again in fiscal 2021, illustrating the ongoing disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic.
GM’s Wholesale Vehicle Deliveries – TTM
To smooth out the bumps in the quarterly plot, I created the TTM or trailing 12-month plot as shown in the chart above for the period from fiscal 2014 to 2021.
You can see from the above chart that the TTM plot displays a much better trend compared to the quarterly plot.
On a TTM basis, GM’s vehicle wholesale has clearly been trending down since fiscal 2014.
The downtrend seemed to be accelerating between fiscal 2017 and 2021.
In fiscal 2020, the downtrend has slightly deaccelerated but it picked up again in fiscal 2021.
As of 4Q 2021, GM’s TTM vehicle wholesale has trended to a record low of 2.9 million vehicles, down 15% from a year ago.
GM’s Vehicle Wholesale and Automotive Revenue
In prior discussions of GM’s wholesale ASP, we know that GM’s vehicle average sale price has increased at an average rate of around 2% from quarter to quarter and the increases actually grew the most in fiscal 2021.
For this reason, GM’s automotive revenue started to increase as well in fiscal 2021 despite the decreasing vehicle wholesale delivery as shown in the chart above.
As you can see, GM’s automotive revenue stood at $114 billion as of fiscal Q4 2021 on a TTM basis, a rise of 5% from a year ago while vehicle wholesale hit a record low in the same fiscal quarter.
The 2 plots used to correlate in a direct proportion manner but this trend has reversed in recent years to an inverse proportion manner, all because of GM’s rising vehicle wholesale ASP.
GM’s Wholesale Vehicle Deliveries by Region – Quarterly
The chart above shows GM’s quarterly vehicle delivery breakdown into business segments or region, including:
According to the chart, GMNA contributed the largest sales to the company in the last 8 years, delivering on average more than 800,000 vehicles per quarter to General Motors.
That said, GMNA’s wholesale vehicle deliveries have recovered in the 2nd half of 2020 compared to the 1st half but the downtrend gained a foothold in 2021.
As of fiscal 2021 Q4, GMNA’s quarterly vehicle wholesale slid back to less than 600,000 units, down nearly 30% from a year ago.
GMI represents GM’s international sales outside of North America.
That said, GMI delivered on average 265,000 vehicles per quarter to the company since fiscal 2014.
However, this figure has slumped significantly in 2021 to less than 200,000 and reached only 163,000 vehicles in fiscal Q4 2021, down more than 20% year-over-year.
Both GMNA and GMI sales have done poorly in fiscal 2021 compared to fiscal 2020 and the weak demand may persist into fiscal 2022 given the lingering COVID-19 disruption on electronic components.
As for GM Europe, General Motors sold off its GME subsidiary in 2017, and therefore, the vehicle delivery data from the European region has ceased to exist by the end of 2017.
GM’s Wholesale Vehicle Deliveries by Region – TTM
Again, to smooth out the quarterly plot, the TTM plot above is created to better show the trend of GM’s vehicle wholesale by region for the period from fiscal 2014 to 2021.
According to the chart, GM North America’s (GMNA) TTM vehicle wholesale has indeed been on a decline and reached a record low of 2.3 million vehicles as of Q4 2021, down 15% year-on-year.
Similarly, GM International’s (GMI) TTM vehicle wholesale also has been on a decline and reached 550,000 units in fiscal 4Q 2021, also a record low for the company.
A trend worth mentioning is that GM delivered a much higher number of vehicles, roughly 4X, to the North American region compared to its international region.
GM’s Vehicle Wholesale Sequential Growth Rates
The chart above shows GM’s quarterly growth rates of wholesale vehicle sales for the last 8 years from 2014 to 2021.
Sequentially, GM experienced the worst growth rates at -50% in 2020 Q2, driven mainly by the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
When strong vehicle demand came back in 3Q 2020, GM’s QoQ growth rate climbed more than 100%.
In the 4th quarter of 2021, GM delivered 38% more vehicles compared to the prior quarter.
GM’s Vehicle Wholesale Year Over Year Growth Rates
The chart above shows the year-over-year growth rates of GM’s wholesale vehicles for the past 8 years between 2014 and 2021.
GM’s YoY growth rates plunged more than 20% in 2017 and 2018.
Subsequently, GM continued to experience negative YoY growth rates.
The worst YoY growth occurred in 2Q 2020 at -60%.
GM’s YoY growth rate reached came in at -27% in 4Q 2021, one of the worst figures the company has ever seen.
General Motors’s vehicle wholesale delivery continued to slip, even during a post-pandemic period in 2021.
In this regard, GM North America (GMNA) and GM International (GMI)’s vehicle wholesale reached record lows in fiscal 2021.
While GM sold considerably fewer vehicles in 2021, GM recorded a much higher automotive revenue in the same period, all due to the rising vehicle average sale price (ASP).
GM’s ASP increased at around 1.7% on average from quarter to quarter in the past 8 years and rose the most in fiscal 2021, notably at 23% from 4Q 2020 to 4Q 2021.
GM’s total vehicle delivery is estimated to come in at 2.8 million units in fiscal 2022, which is flat compared to 2021, based on the guidance provided by the company during the 4Q 2021 earnings call.
References and Credits
1. All data in this article were obtained and referenced from GM annual and quarterly statements which are available at General Motors Investor Relation.
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