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Tracking GM Vehicle Deliveries By Region and Segment

A 1958 GM Oldsmobile vehicle. Flickr Image.

This article keeps track of General Motors (NYSE:GM) vehicle wholesale figures.

For your information, GM presents two types of vehicle sales or vehicle deliveries data in quarterly and yearly reports:

(1) Wholesale vehicle sales, and
(2) Total vehicle sales.

What Is Wholesale Vehicle Sales

According to GM, wholesale vehicle sales or just vehicle deliveries are vehicles delivered to dealers or distributors, and the sales of these vehicles are recognized as revenue in the income statements.

However, wholesale numbers do not include vehicles sold by GM’s joint ventures or affiliates such as those in China in which GM does not have a controlling interest.

Here is a quote extracted from GM’s statements regarding wholesale deliveries.

  • “We present both wholesale and total vehicle sales data to assist in the analysis of our revenue and our market share.

    Wholesale vehicle sales data consists of sales to GM’s dealers and distributors as well as sales to the U.S. Government and excludes vehicles sold by our joint ventures.

    Wholesale vehicle sales data correlates to our revenue recognized from the sale of vehicles, which is the largest component of Automotive net sales and revenue.”

Referring to the statements above, GM’s vehicle wholesale are vehicles delivered to dealers and distributors and are recognized as automotive revenue.

What Is Total Vehicle Sales

On the other hand, total vehicle sales are retail sales and are vehicles delivered from dealers or distributors to end consumers.

Retail vehicle delivery bypasses General Motors and does not have any relationship with the company.

Total vehicle sales do not correlate with GM’s sales revenue presented in the income statements.

Here is a quote extracted from GM’s statements regarding total vehicle sales.

  • “Total vehicle sales data represents:

    (1) retail sales (i.e., sales to consumers who purchase new vehicles from dealers or distributors);
    (2) fleet sales, such as sales to large and small businesses, governments, and daily rental car companies; and
    (3) vehicles used by dealers in their businesses, including courtesy transportation vehicles.

    Total vehicle sales data includes all sales by joint ventures on a total vehicle basis, not based on our percentage ownership interest in the joint venture.”

Therefore, GM’s total vehicle sales include retail volume, fleet sales and vehicles delivered from dealers to other businesses.

However, the sales of these vehicles do not represent revenue recognized in the income statements.

What Is Presented In This Article

In this article, you will find GM’s wholesale or wholesale vehicle sales that correlate with revenue presented in the annual and quarterly statements.

The wholesale data and retail sale data are vastly different.

The vehicle sales data presented on other websites may not be clearly explained whether they are wholesale or retail sales data.

Sometimes the retail sales data may not necessarily indicate the realistic nature of GM’s business condition simply because the retail sales data represents only sales from dealers and distributors to customers.

Readers who are interested in GM’s retail sales data may visit the webpage at the following link.

Let’s start looking at the sales numbers below.

GM’s Wholesale Vehicle Deliveries – Yearly

GM's annual vehicle wholesale figure

GM’s annual vehicle wholesale figure

* Annual vehicle wholesale data is extracted directly from GM’s annual and quarterly statements.
* GM’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

Let’s first look at GM’s annual vehicle delivery which is shown in the chart above for the period between fiscal 2018 and 2022.

In fiscal 2021, GM delivered a total sum of 2.9 million vehicles of which 80% of that number or 2.3 million vehicles were from North America.

In the same fiscal year, GM International (GMI)’s vehicle delivery reached 551,000 units, or 20% of the total volume.

As seen, GM’s vehicle wholesale deliveries have been on a decline since 2018 and the figures reported in fiscal 2021 were the lowest in the last 4 years.

GM’s total vehicle deliveries in 2021 were down 15% from fiscal 2020 or a massive 40% from 2018.

In 2022, General Motors delivered 2.6 million vehicles as of the 3rd quarter.

This number includes 2.1 million vehicles from North America or 82% of the total volume while only 474,000 vehicles were delivered internationally.

GM’s Vehicle Average Selling Price (ASP)

GM's vehicle average sale price

GM’s vehicle average sale price

* ASP is calculated by the author based on GM’s TTM vehicle wholesale and TTM automotive revenue.
* GM’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

Since GM’s vehicle wholesale correlates closely with the recognized automotive revenue in the income statements, we can use the relationship to calculate GM’s vehicle average selling price (ASP).

According to the chart above, GM’s ASP has been on a steady rise in the last 8 years.

In fiscal 2014, GM’s ASP was only about $25,000 per vehicle on average.

This figure has risen to $40k per vehicle on average as of fiscal 3Q 2022.

Also, GM’s vehicle ASP rose the most since fiscal 2020 as seen in the chart above.

In fiscal 2021 alone, GM’s vehicle average selling price grew as much as 23%, notably from $32,300 reported in fiscal 4Q 2020 to $39,700 reported in 4Q 2021.

On average, GM’s ASP grew 1.6% from quarter to quarter since fiscal 2014.

GM’s Projected Vehicle Wholesale In 2022

GM's total vehicle deliveries

GM’s total vehicle deliveries

* Projected figure for fiscal 2022 is calculated by the author based on GM’s 2022 guidance obtained from the 3Q 2022 quarterly report.
* GM’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

General Motors provided 2022 guidance for adjusted EBIT during the 3Q 2022 earnings conference.

The 2022 guidance is that the adjusted EBIT will come to between $13 billion and $15 billion.

For your information, GM’s EBIT-adjusted margin for its North American operation came in at 10% while the EBIT-adjusted margin for its International operation topped 8% for the 9 months that ended on 30 Sept 2022.

Based on an average EBIT-adjusted margin of around 9% and a vehicle ASP of around $40,000, GM’s vehicle delivery for fiscal 2022 is estimated to come to 3.5 million units, a record figure in the last 5 years.

Therefore, GM’s vehicle wholesale for fiscal 2022 is estimated to increase by 24% from 2021 or 5% from 2020.

Despite the projected growth of vehicle delivery in fiscal 2022, the figure is still down considerably from its pre-COVID figures, illustrating that there is still room for improvement for General Motors.

GM’s Vehicle Deliveries – Quarterly

GM's quarterly vehicle wholesale figure

GM’s quarterly vehicle wholesale figure

* Quarterly vehicle wholesale data is extracted directly from GM’s annual and quarterly statements.
* GM’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

The chart above shows GM’s quarterly wholesale vehicle sales for the past 8 years from fiscal 2015 to 2022.

On a quarterly basis, GM’s wholesale vehicle deliveries were seen trending down over the past 8 years.

The downtrend has accelerated between 2019 and 2020, hitting a record low at about 1 million vehicles per quarter in fiscal 2020.

Before that, GM used to deliver more than 1.5 million vehicles per quarter between fiscal 2014 and 2017.

In fiscal Q3 2022, GM’s quarterly vehicle delivery came in higher at 966,000 units, a record number in 2022.

The 2022 3Q vehicle delivery represents a growth of 80% from the same quarter a year ago.

While demands for GM’s vehicles have recovered in 2022, the numbers were still lower than those reported prior to the pandemic.

GM’s Wholesale Vehicle Deliveries – TTM

GM's TTM vehicle wholesale figure

GM’s TTM vehicle wholesale figure

* TTM vehicle wholesale data comes from the author’s own calculation and are calculated based on the sum of the quarterly data on a trailing 12-month or 4-quarter basis.
* GM’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

To smooth out the bumps in the quarterly plot, I created the TTM or trailing 12-month plot as shown in the chart above for the period from fiscal 2014 to 2022.

You can see from the above chart that the TTM plot displays a much better trend compared to the quarterly plot.

On a TTM basis, GM’s vehicle wholesale has clearly been trending down since fiscal 2014.

The downtrend seemed to be accelerating between fiscal 2017 and 2021.

In fiscal 2022, the downtrend has slightly reversed especially in the 2nd half of the year.

As of 3Q 2022, GM’s TTM vehicle wholesale has trended to a record high of 3.5 million vehicles, up 7% from a year ago.

GM’s Vehicle Wholesale and Automotive Revenue

GM's automotive revenue Vs vehicle delivery figure

GM’s automotive revenue Vs vehicle delivery figure

* Plots shown in the chart above are presented on a TTM basis which is calculated based on the sum of the quarterly data on a trailing 12-month or 4-quarter basis.
* GM’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

In prior discussions of GM’s wholesale ASP, we know that GM’s vehicle average sale price has increased at an average rate of nearly 2% from quarter to quarter and the increases actually grew the most in fiscal 2021.

For this reason, GM’s automotive revenue started to reverse the decline in fiscal 2021 despite the decreasing vehicle delivery as shown in the chart above.

As you can see, GM’s automotive revenue stood at $135 billion as of fiscal Q3 2022 on a TTM basis, a rise of 15% from a year ago while vehicle wholesale hit a record high in the same fiscal quarter.

However, GM’s vehicle wholesale grew only 7% from a year ago while automotive revenue grew 15% in the same period.

Therefore, we are seeing a much faster revenue growth for General Motors despite the slowing vehicle wholesale, thanks to the increasing average selling price (ASP) of vehicles.

Moreover, the 2 plots used to correlate in a direct proportion manner but this trend has reversed in recent years to an inverse proportion manner, all because of GM’s rising vehicle wholesale ASP.

GM’s Wholesale Vehicle Deliveries by Region – Quarterly

GM's quarterly vehicle delivery by region

GM’s quarterly vehicle delivery by region

* Quarterly vehicle delivery by region data is extracted directly from GM’s annual and quarterly statements.
* GM’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

The chart above shows GM’s quarterly vehicle delivery breakdown into business segments or regions, including:

1. GM North America (GMNA)
2. GM International (GMI)
3. GM Europe (GME)

According to the chart, GMNA contributed the largest sales to the company in the last 8 years, delivering on average more than 800,000 vehicles per quarter to General Motors.

While that was the case in the past, GMNA’s wholesale vehicle deliveries have been on a downtrend over the years.

Starting in 2020, GM North America’s vehicle wholesale on a quarterly basis has dived below the 800,000 threshold as shown in the chart.

As of fiscal 2022 Q3, GMNA’s quarterly vehicle deliveries totaled 784,000 units, up 85% from a year ago.

In view of the massive rise of vehicle sales in 2022, is GMNA on track to reclaim its previous glory? Probably.

On the other hand, GMI represents GM’s international sales outside of North America.

That said, GMI delivered an average of 300,000 vehicles per quarter to the company since fiscal 2014.

However, this figure has slumped significantly starting in 2020 to less than 200,000 and reached only 182,000 vehicles in fiscal Q3 2022.

While GMI’s vehicle deliveries have been down on a long-term basis, its 3Q 2022 quarter was up 61% year-over-year.

Similar to its North American counterpart, is GMI on track to recovery?

As for GM Europe, General Motors sold off its GME subsidiary in 2017, and therefore, the vehicle delivery data from the European region ceased to exist by the end of 2017.

GM’s Wholesale Vehicle Deliveries by Region – TTM

GM's TTM vehicle delivery by region

GM’s TTM vehicle delivery by region

* Plots shown in the chart above are presented on a TTM basis which are calculated based on the sum of the quarterly data on a trailing 12-month or 4-quarter basis.
* GM’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

Again, to smooth out the quarterly plot, the TTM plot above is created to better show the trend of GM’s vehicle wholesale by region for the period from fiscal 2014 to 2022.

According to the chart, GM North America’s (GMNA) TTM vehicle wholesale has indeed been on a decline.

As of Q3 2022, GMNA’s TTM figure reached 2.7 million vehicles, up 7% year-on-year.

Similarly, GM International’s (GMI) TTM vehicle wholesale also has been on a decline on a long-term basis.

As of Q3 2022, GMI’s TTM figure reached 637,000 units, up 5% from a year ago.

A trend worth mentioning is that GM delivered a much higher number of vehicles, roughly 4X higher, to the North American region compared to its international region.

GM’s Vehicle Wholesale Sequential Growth Rates

GM's vehicle delivery QoQ growth rates

GM’s vehicle delivery QoQ growth rates

* Quarterly growth rates comes from the author’s own calculation.

The chart above shows GM’s quarterly growth rates of vehicle wholesale for the last 8 years from 2014 to 2022.

As the chart shows, GM had only several quarters with positive sequential growth rates.

In Q3 2022, GM delivered 18% more vehicles compared to the prior quarter.

GM’s Vehicle Wholesale Year Over Year Growth Rates

GM's vehicle delivery YoY growth rates

GM’s vehicle delivery YoY growth rates

* YoY growth rates comes from the author’s own calculation.

The chart above shows the year-over-year growth rates of GM’s wholesale vehicles for the past 8 years between 2014 and 2022.

Similarly, GM had only a few quarters with positive year-on-year growth rates.

In 3Q 2022, GM’s YoY growth rate surged to 80%, one of the best figures the company has ever seen.

Conclusion

General Motors’s vehicle wholesale continued to rally in a post-pandemic world in 2022.

In this regard, GM North America (GMNA) and GM International (GMI)’s vehicle wholesale reached record highs in fiscal 2022.

While GM sold considerably fewer vehicles in 2022, GM recorded a much higher automotive revenue in the same period, all due to the rising vehicle average sale price (ASP).

GM’s ASP increased at around 1.7% on average from quarter to quarter in the past 8 years and rose the most in fiscal 2021, notably at 23% from 4Q 2020 to 4Q 2021.

References and Credits

1. All data in this article were obtained and referenced from GM annual and quarterly statements which are available at General Motors Investor Relation.

2. Featured images in this article are used under creative commons licenses and sourced from the following websites: Cam Miller and GM Europe.

Disclosure

The content in this article is for informational purposes only and is neither a recommendation nor a piece of financial advice to purchase a stock.

If you find the information in this article helpful, please consider sharing it on social media and also provide a link back to this article from any website so that more articles like this one can be created in the future. Thank you!

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