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Tracking Ford Global Vehicle Sales and Market Share

Ford (NYSE:F) provided two types of vehicle sales data in its quarterly and annual financial filings. The vehicle sales data disclosed are:

(1) Wholesale vehicle sales, and
(2) Retail vehicle sales.

The difference between the two is explained in the following paragraphs.

Wholesale vehicle sales are basically vehicles sold to dealerships and the majority of such sales is correlated with the company’s recognized revenue in the income statements.

Retail vehicle sales represents primarily sales by dealerships to end customers and is based on estimated vehicle registrations which include medium and heavy trucks. For such sales, Ford does not recognize the revenue generated from the sales of dealerships to end customers and in most parts, the retail sales data merely represents the strength of Ford’s brands.

With the above said, this article is covering Ford’s retail vehicle sales data extracted from the company’s financial reports. Other than retail sales, we are also tracking the respective market share of Ford’s retail sales. Besides, this article also briefly talks about the year over year growth rates of Ford’s vehicle sales by region and by types.

For readers who are interested in Ford’s wholesale vehicle sales data, please visit this page: Ford’s vehicle wholesale deliveries.

Also, take note that vehicle sales and retail sales are used interchangeably in this article and they are meant the same.

So, sit tight and read on to find out more!

Ford’s Vehicle Sales by Region

Ford quarterly vehicle sales by region

Ford quarterly vehicle sales by region

The chart above shows Ford’s quarterly vehicle sales in the U.S., China and Europe over the past 4 years between 2016 and 2020.

The Euro20 stated in the chart above represents Ford’s 20 European traditional markets which are Austria, Belgium, Britain, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Romania, Sweden and Switzerland.

The U.S., China and Euro20 are Ford’s 3 largest markets in the world and their combined sales made up roughly 80% of Ford’s total vehicle sales in 2019 based on the Q4 2019 annual report.

As seen from the chart, the U.S. is Ford’s largest market, contributing more than half a million of vehicle sales quarterly to the company over the past 4 years. As of 1Q 2020, Ford U.S. vehicle sales plunged to the lowest at only 516k units, representing a year over year drop of 12.5%.

The 2nd largest market went to Europe, contributing roughly 300k vehicle sales quarterly to Ford. As of 1Q 2020, Ford’s European vehicle sales plunged to 241k which was also the lowest over the 4-year period.

Ford’s China retail sales also experienced similar drop and only reported 89k vehicle sold as of 1Q 2020.

Over the past 4 years, the only market that has been holding up in terms of retail sales would probably be the European market. Ford’s U.S. and China retail sales haven been trending down between 2016 and 2020, with China being the worst performer.

China used to be Ford’s 2nd largest retail market back in 2016 but has since declined and quarterly vehicle sales has plunged by more than 50% in 2019 compared to that of 4 years ago.

Ford’s Market Share by Region

Ford market share by region

Ford market share by region

The chart above shows Ford’s quarterly market share in North America, China and Europe over the past 4 years between 2016 and 2020.

As mentioned, the Euro20 consists of Ford’s 20 European traditional markets and these 20 European countries alone made up more than 90% of Ford’s total European retail market in 2019. The North America market consists of the U.S., Mexico and Canada, with the U.S. making up roughly 85% of Ford’s North America retail sales in 2019.

According to Ford’s financial statements, market share is calculated by dividing the reported retail sales of Ford’s brands by total industry volume in the relevant market or region.

As pointed out in the chart, it’s no surprise that Ford’s market share in North America has been the highest among the 3 regions since the U.S. has been contributing the highest sales to the company over the past 4 years. As of Q1 2020, Ford’s market share in North America still held up nicely at 13.6% compared to a year earlier despite record plunge in car sales in the U.S. market.

For the European market, Ford’s market share was seen declining steadily since 2016. Back in 2016, the company’s market share in Europe was around 8% but the figure has declined slightly to around 7% in 2019. As of 1Q 2020, Ford’s market share in Europe has dropped to its lowest at only 6.9% which is expected as Ford has experienced the worst car sales in the European market during the same quarter.

In terms of market share, China has been the worst performer as seen from the result in the chart. Over the past 4 years, Ford’s market share in China has dropped by more than 50% between 2016 and 2019. As of 1Q 2020, Ford posted a market share of only 2.2% in China’s retail market which was largely caused by the worst vehicle sales in the same quarter.

Among the 3 regions, China has been the worst performing market for Ford’s vehicle sales as seen from the respective 50% drop in market share over the past 4 years. On the flip side, U.S. market share still held up nicely between 2016 and 2019 while the European market share has declined by 1% in 2019 compared to 2016.

Ford’s Vehicle Sales YoY Growth Rates in the U.S.

Ford vehicle sales YoY growth rates in the US

Ford vehicle sales YoY growth rates in the U.S.

The chart above shows Ford’s vehicle sales year over year (YoY) growth rates in the U.S. between 2017 and 2020.

As the chart shows, most of Ford’s vehicle sales in the U.S. were in the negative region when measured on a year over year basis, with 1Q 2020 having the worst number at -12.5% since 2017. Prior to 1Q 2020, Ford also has experienced negative growth in the U.S. but not as severe as the 1Q 2020 quarter. For example, Ford reported negative YoY growth rates in most of 2018 and 2019 quarters in the U.S. but they were mostly low single-digit numbers.

The 1Q 2020 quarterly result in the U.S. was mainly caused by the plunge of car sales to only slightly above 500k units which was the worst in Ford’s history since 2017.

While Ford posted a large drop in retail sales in the U.S. in 1Q 2020, the average YoY growth rate between 2017 and 2020 was only -3% which in my opinion was not so bad considering the challenges faced by the automotive industry in the United States.

Ford’s Vehicle Sales YoY Growth Rates in Europe

Ford vehicle sales YoY growth rates in Europe

Ford vehicle sales YoY growth rates in Europe

The chart above represents Ford’s vehicle sales year over year (YoY) growth rates in Europe between 2017 and 2020.

As the chart shows, Ford’s retail sales YoY growth rates in Europe were similar to that in the U.S. where we are seeing negative growth rates in most quarterly results between 2017 and 2019. However, these figures were negative low single-digit figures with the 1Q 2020 being the exception.

In 1Q 2020, Ford posted a once-in-a-life drop of as much as -33% in YoY decline in the European retail market. This result was expected as Ford’s quarterly vehicle sales in 1Q 2020 plummeted to only 241K units which was also the lowest since 2016.

In average, Ford reported a vehicle sales YoY decline of roughly -2.9% between 2017 and 2020 which was similar to the U.S. average result.

Ford’s Vehicle Sales YoY Growth Rates in China

Ford vehicle sales YoY growth rates in China

Ford vehicle sales YoY growth rates in China

The chart above shows Ford’s vehicle sales year over year (YoY) growth rates in China between 2017 and 2020.

Prior to the current discussion, we saw that China has been the worst performer among the 3 countries in terms of vehicle sales since 2016. As a result, it’s no surprise to see that China has also been the worst performer when it comes to YoY growth rates during the same period.

As seen from the chart, Ford has experienced the worst YoY decline throughout most quarters between 2017 and 2020. Prior to 1Q 2020, retail sales in China has already been one of the worst hit among the 3 regions, with 4Q 2018 quarter reporting a YoY decline to the tune of -54%.

Also, most quarterly results in the chart reported double-digits decline in YoY retail sales in China. As of 1Q 2020, Ford’s YoY growth rate in vehicle sales was -34.6% which was expected due to the declining retail sales which hit only 89K units.

When it comes to the average figure, China was the hardest hit with an average YoY growth rate of -23% between 2017 and 2020. It’s no wonder that Ford’s marker share in China has declined by more than 50% during the 4-year period.

Ford’s Vehicle Sales by Type in the U.S.

Ford vehicle sales by type in the U.S.

Ford vehicle sales by type in the U.S.

The chart above shows Ford’s retail sales by type in the U.S. between 2016 and 2020.

Since the U.S. has been Ford’s biggest market for its automotive products over the years, Ford has exclusively reported the breakdown of the vehicle sales into trucks, cars and SUVs for the U.S. market.

As the chart shows, Ford’s truck sales in the U.S. has held up for the past 4 years and the same trend is observed for SUVs sales. As of 1Q 2020, Ford U.S. truck and SUVs quarterly sales have plummeted to 264K and 190K units respectively. Prior to 1Q 2020, Ford’s truck and SUVs sales in the U.S. has been on an uptrend since 2016, especially for trucks which have hit record high in 4Q 2019 at 330K units.

It’s different story when it comes to car sales in the United States. Ford’s car sales in the U.S. has been on a downtrend since 2016, hitting record low at only 63K units in Q1 2020.

Based on the quarterly results in the current chart, we can conclude that Ford has been having good sales in the truck and SUV segment while suffering badly in the sedan segment. This trend is expected as Ford has pointed out in its financial report that it’s more profitable for sales of larger vehicle such as SUV and truck.

The following quote was extracted from Ford’s 4Q 2019 annual report regarding the profitability of larger vehicle sales.

  • “Ford’s results are dependent on sales of larger, more profitable vehicles, particularly in the United States. A shift in consumer preferences away from larger, more profitable vehicles (including trucks and utilities) at levels beyond our current planning assumption, whether because of spiking fuel prices, a decline in the construction industry, government actions or incentives, or other reasons, could result in an immediate and substantial adverse effect on our financial condition or results of operations.”

Ford’s Annual Vehicle Sales by Country

Ford annual vehicle sales by country

Ford annual vehicle sales by country

The chart above shows Ford’s annual vehicle sales by country over the past 5 years between 2015 and 2019.

The countries shown in the chart are the United States, United Kingdom, Brazil, Germany, Canada and China. Cumulatively, these countries made up more than 70% of Ford’s global retail sales in 2019.

As the chart shows, the United States has been Ford’s largest retail market from 2015 to 2019, contributing more than 2 million of vehicle sales to the company annually. Despite topping the chart for the past 5 years, Ford’s U.S. vehicle sales was seen declining year over year and reached the lowest at 2.4 million units in 2019. The decline represents a drop of roughly 8% from 2016 to 2019.

The 2nd spot went to China which in the past has contributed more than 1 million of vehicle sales to Ford annually. However, China retail sales has seriously declined over the past 5 years and reached only 0.6 million units in 2019, representing a decline of 45% from the 2016 figure.

The rest of the countries have been flat in terms of vehicle sales over the past 5 years, with Brazil’s vehicle sales declined slightly in 2016 from 0.3 million to 0.2 million units.

Ford’s Global Market Share by Country

Ford global market share by country

Ford global market share by country

The chart above shows Ford’s global market share by country.

While the U.S. may have been Ford’s biggest customer, the company’s retail market share in the U.S. has declined slightly between 2015 and 2019, dropping to its lowest at 13.8% in 2019 from its high of 14.7% back in 2015.

Ford also experienced similar market share decline in the United Kingdom, with market share dropping from 14.3% in 2015 to 13% in 2019.

Similarly, Ford’s market share in Brazil also declined slightly between 2015 and 2019, dropping from 10.4% to only 8.1%.

Ford’s retail market share in China dropped the most from 4.7% in 2015 to only 2.2% in 2019.

The only market that has hold up in terms of market share has been Germany between 2015 and 2019. In short, Ford’s market share in Germany has increased slightly higher to 8.3% compared to 2015 figure.

Conclusion

In summary, Ford’s global vehicle sales has declined in 3 of its largest markets in the world. The decline has got even worst in 1Q 2020 when retail sales were largely affected by the COVID-19 outbreak.

In terms of market share, Ford’s market share has declined the most in China while it has remained flat in North America and Europe.

Ford’s year over year growth rates for retail vehicle sales have also declined across all regions with 1Q 2020 being the worst recorded over the past 4 years.

While we have seen declining vehicle sales across all regions and countries, Ford’s trucks and SUVs sales in the U.S. have hold up and even increased slightly as seen in 4Q 2019 result. However, Ford’s trucks and SUVs sales have succumbed to the slowing demand in 1Q 2020 which was largely caused by the COVID-19 outbreak.

In short, Ford has probably given up its sedan market in the U.S. considering that its car sales has been sliding down the hill over the years and switched to the more profitable vehicles such as trucks and SUVs.

References and Credits

1. Financial figures in all charts and tables in this article were obtained from Ford’s Financials and Filings.

2. Featured images in this article are used under creative commons license and sourced from the following websites: More Cars.

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