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Tracking Ford Global Vehicle Sales and Market Share

Ford by Flickr Image.

Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) provides two types of vehicle sales data in its annual and quarterly statements.

The vehicle sales data that can be found in Ford’s financial statements are:

(1) Wholesale vehicle sales, and
(2) Retail vehicle sales.

The difference between the two is explained in the following paragraphs.

Wholesale Vehicle Sales

Wholesale vehicle sales are basically vehicles sold to dealerships and the majority of such sales is correlated with the company’s recognized revenue in the income statements.

In short, wholesales are merely sales to dealers.

Retail Vehicle Sales

Retail vehicle sales represents primarily sales by dealerships to end customers and are based on estimated vehicle registrations which include medium and heavy trucks.

For such sales, Ford does not recognize the revenue generated from the sales of dealerships to end customers and in most parts, the retail sales data merely represents the strength of Ford’s brands.

What’s Being Covered Here

With the above said, this article is covering only Ford’s retail vehicle sales.

Other than retail sales, we are also tracking Ford’s market share and the breakdown of Ford’s sales by region as well as by country.

Besides, this article also briefly talks about Ford’s year-over-year growth rates in global vehicle sales and vehicle sales by types in the U.S.

For readers who are interested in Ford’s wholesale vehicle sales data, please visit this page: Ford’s vehicle wholesale deliveries.

Keep in mind that vehicle sales and retail sales are used interchangeably in this article and they are meant the same.

Let’s dive in!

Ford’s Vehicle Sales by Region (Quarterly)

Ford's quarterly vehicle sales by region

Ford’s quarterly vehicle sales by region

* Vehicle sales by region data is extracted directly from Ford Motor’s annual and quarterly reports.

* Euro20 represents Ford’s 20 European traditional markets which are Austria, Belgium, Britain, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Romania, Sweden and Switzerland.

* China sales data includes Taiwan

* Ford Motor’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

The chart above shows Ford’s quarterly vehicle sales by region or by country in the U.S., China and Europe for the past 5 years between fiscal 2016 and 2021.

The U.S., China and Euro20 are Ford’s 3 largest markets in the world and their combined sales made up roughly 80% of Ford’s total retail sales in fiscal 2020.

In the chart above, the U.S. has been Ford’s largest market, contributing, on average, half a million vehicle sales per quarter to the company over the past 5 years.

In 2Q 2021, Ford’s U.S. vehicle sales stood at 475K units, representing a year-over-year increase of nearly 10%.

Europe is Ford’s 2nd largest market after the U.S., at roughly 300k vehicle sales per quarter.

However, that number plummeted to only 169k vehicles in Q2 2020, the lowest since 2016.

Fortunately, Ford’s retail sales in Europe recovered significantly by 2Q 2021, with sales totaling 243k vehicles.

China is Ford’s 3rd largest market in terms of retail sales.

In fiscal 2021, Ford’s vehicle sales in China have slightly increased, hitting 153k vehicles in the 2nd quarter.

Despite the recovery in China, Ford’s sales numbers were still way below the historical high of 300k vehicles reported in fiscal 2016.

Moreover, China used to be Ford’s 2nd largest retail market but Europe has surpassed China as Ford’s 2nd largest market since 2018.

Ford’s Vehicle Sales by Region (TTM)

Ford's TTM vehicle sales by region

Ford’s TTM vehicle sales by region

* TTM figures are calculated based on the sum of the quarterly data on a trailing 12-month or 4-quarter basis.

The TTM plot above smoothes out the bumps seen in the quarterly plot and can clearly display the trend of Ford’s vehicle sales.

As seen in the chart above, Ford’s vehicle sales in all regions, including the U.S., Europe and China, have slightly turned higher as of 2Q 2021 sequentially and year-over-year.

The higher vehicle sales in fiscal 2021 may indicate a looming turnaround for the company.

Ford’s Market Share by Region (Quarterly)

Ford's market share by region

Ford’s market share by region

* Market share represents reported retail sales of Ford’s brands as a percent of total industry volume in the relevant market or region.

* China market share includes Ford brand and JMC brand vehicles produced and sold by Ford’s unconsolidated affiliates.

The chart above shows Ford’s quarterly market share by region or by country in North America, China and Europe for the period between fiscal 2016 and 2021.

The Euro20 consists of Ford’s 20 European traditional markets. These 20 European countries alone made up more than 90% of Ford’s total European retail volumes in 2020.

The North American market consists of the U.S., Mexico and Canada, with the U.S. being the largest contributor at roughly 85% of Ford’s total retail volume in 2020.

That said, Ford Motor’s market share in the North American region averaged about 12% for the last 5 years.

However, Ford’s North America market share drop to only 10.4% in fiscal 2021 2Q, representing a year-over-year decline of 4 percentage points.

Similarly, Ford’s market share in Europe declined by nearly 1ppts year-over-year to 6.2% in 2Q 2021.

Ford’s market share in China has remained steady at 2.3% in 2021 Q2 but is far below the historical highs reported in fiscal 2016.

Among the 3 regions, Ford’s retail market share is the lowest in China at less than 3% in the last 3 years.

On the flip side, Ford’s retail share in North America and Europe has remained relatively unchanged.

Ford’s Vehicle Sales In The U.S. YoY Growth Rates

Ford's vehicle sales in the U.S. YoY growth rates

Ford’s vehicle sales in the U.S. YoY growth rates

* YoY growth rates in the U.S. are calculated by the author.

Ford reported the 1st year-on-year growth in vehicle sales in the U.S. in the 1st half of 2021.

The most obvious recovery was seen in 2Q 2021 at a 9% year-over-year growth rate.

In the 1st half of 2021, Ford’s vehicle sales were boosted by the recovery in Ford and Lincoln brand vehicles at about 5% year-over-year growth for each brand.

Ford’s Vehicle Sales In Europe YoY Growth Rates

Ford's vehicle sales in Euro20 YoY growth rates

Ford’s vehicle sales in Euro20 YoY growth rates

* YoY growth rates in Europe are calculated by the author.

Ford’s vehicle sales in Euro20 also experienced a significant improvement in 2021, with sales growing 44% year over year in 2Q 2021.

After having the worst year-on-year growth results in 2020, Ford has finally seen a rebound in vehicle sales in Europe in 2021.

Ford’s Vehicle Sales In China YoY Growth Rates

Ford's vehicle sales in China YoY growth rates

Ford’s vehicle sales in China YoY growth rates

* YoY growth rates in China are calculated by the author.

Surprisingly, Ford’s total vehicle sales in China increased year over year in 3 consecutive quarters in 2020, driven mainly by strong demand for Ford’s SUVs and luxury vehicles following the lifting of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.

However, Ford reported a lower YoY growth rate in China in 2Q 2021 at -4% but a much higher growth rate in 1Q 2021 at 73%.

Ford’s Vehicle Sales By Category In The U.S. (Quarterly)

Ford's quarterly vehicle sales by category in the U.S.

Ford’s quarterly vehicle sales by category in the U.S.

* U.S. total vehicle or retail sales volume reflects transactions with (i) retail and fleet customers (as reported by dealers), (ii) government, and (iii) Ford management.

The chart above shows Ford’s total vehicle or retail sales by category in the U.S. between fiscal 2016 and 2021.

Ford’s U.S. vehicle sales are broken down by category into trucks, cars and SUVs as shown in the chart above.

According to the chart, Ford’s truck sales in the U.S. have held up firmly for the past 4 years and the same trend is observed for SUVs sales.

In the 2nd quarter of 2021, Ford’s truck sales in the U.S. plummeted to 236,000 units, marking the fourth sequential decrease since the end of 2020.

However, Ford’s SUV sales held up nicely in 2Q 2021 at 220,000 units, representing a 46% increase on a year-on-year basis.

Ford reported in its financial statement that it’s more profitable to sell larger vehicles such as SUVs and trucks.

The following quote was extracted from one of Ford’s annual statements regarding the profitability of larger vehicle sales.

  • “Ford’s results are dependent on sales of larger, more profitable vehicles, particularly in the United States.

    A shift in consumer preferences away from larger, more profitable vehicles (including trucks and utilities) at levels beyond our current planning assumption, whether because of spiking fuel prices, a decline in the construction industry, government actions or incentives, or other reasons, could result in an immediate and substantial adverse effect on our financial condition or results of operations.”

Ford’s trucks especially the F-Series pickups have been popular with consumers in the U.S.

While Ford’s trucks are more profitable, their sales plummeted for the 4th time on a sequential basis in the 2nd quarter of 2021, driven mainly by the decline in Ford’s brand trucks such as the F-series and Transit.

Nevertheless, Ford’s heavy truck made a comeback in the U.S. in the 2nd quarter of 2021 as the reported sales grew more than 100% in the 1st half compared to a year ago.

While Ford’s truck and SUV sales were slightly favorable in 2021, the car or sedan segment in the U.S. suffered the most, with total car sales plunging by a stunning 56% in the 1st half of 2021.

In the car segment, Ford’s Fiesta was completely wiped out in the 1st half of 2021.

Ford’s Mustang also took a beating at only 32,000 deliveries in the 1st half of 2021, a year-on-year decline of 5%.

Ford’s Vehicle Sales By Category In The U.S. (TTM)

Ford's TTM vehicle sales by category in the U.S.

Ford’s TTM vehicle sales by category in the U.S.

* TTM figures are calculated based on the sum of the quarterly data on a trailing 12-month or 4-quarter basis.

From a TTM perspective, Ford’s SUV has made a significant comeback in fiscal 2021, with sales exceeding that of the same quarter a year ago in 2Q 2021.

As of 2Q 2021, Ford delivered 846,000 SUVs on a TTM basis compared to only 742,000 SUVs reported a year ago.

Truck sales have remained flat on a TTM basis while sedan or car sales have continued to plummet in 2021 according to the chart.

Ford’s Global Vehicle Sales by Country

Ford global vehicle sales by country

Ford global vehicle sales by country

* Retail or vehicle sales represents primarily sales by dealers and is based, in part, on estimated vehicle registrations; includes medium and heavy trucks.

* China sales include Taiwan.

The chart above shows Ford’s global retail or vehicle sales by country on a yearly basis for the period between 2015 and 2020

The countries shown in the chart are the United States, United Kingdom, Brazil, Germany, Canada and China.

Cumulatively, these countries made up more than 70% of Ford’s global retail volumes in 2020.

As seen in the chart, the United States has been Ford’s largest retail market from 2015 to 2020, contributing more than 2 million vehicle sales to the company annually.

Despite topping the chart for the past 6 years, Ford’s U.S. vehicle sales were seen declining year over year and reached the lowest at 2.0 million units in 2020.

China claimed the 2nd spot at an average sales figure of 900k per year.

Ford used to sell more than 1 million vehicles in China, but that figure has dropped to only 600k as of 2020.

Ford may have the worst sales results in 2020, with all countries in the chart reporting negative sales growth.

Ford’s vehicle sales have held up nicely in Canada, the United Kingdom and Germany prior to 2020.

However, the company reported a plunged in these countries in retail sales in 2020, with the United Kingdom having the worst result when the reported sales dropped 50% year over year in 2020.

Ford’s Global Market Share by Country

Ford's global market share by country

Ford’s global market share by country

* Market share represents reported retail sales of Ford’s brands as a percent of total industry volume in the relevant market or region.

The chart above shows Ford’s global market share by country for the period from 2015 to 2020.

While the U.S. may have been Ford’s biggest customer, the company’s retail market share in the U.S. has declined slightly between 2015 and 2020, dropping to its lowest at 13.7% in 2020 from its high of 14.7% back in 2015.

Ford also experienced a similar market share decline in the United Kingdom, with market share dropping from 14.3% in 2015 to 12.9% in 2020.

Similarly, Ford’s market share in Brazil declined the most, dropping from 10.4% in 2015 to only 6.8% as of 2020.

Ford’s retail market share in China increased modestly from 2.2% in 2019 to 2.4% in 2020.

However, between 2015 and 2020, Ford has seen its market share in China tumbling more than half from 4.7% in 2015 to only 2.4% in 2020.

The only countries that hold up firmly in terms of market share were Canada and Germany.

Between 2015 and 2020, Ford has maintained its market share in Canada at more than 14%.

As of 2020, Ford’s market share in Canada has grown to 15.1%, making it the only country that sees its market share growing.

Conclusion

In summary, 2020 has been a tumultuous year for Ford. The company saw its vehicle sales tumbling in 3 of its largest markets, namely the U.S., China and Europe.

While vehicle sales have plummeted in mid-2020, we are seeing a significant recovery in Ford’s retail sales in all regions by the end of the 4th quarter, driven primarily by the strong demand for the company’s trucks and SUVs as well as luxury vehicles.

For full-year 2020, Ford’s total vehicle sales have recovered to their pre-pandemic levels in all regions, with trucks and SUVs being the best performing segments.

Ford’s recovery continued into fiscal 2021 2Q, with the U.S. and Europe leading the growth.

It’s the same for Ford China when the company reported 4 sequential growth between fiscal 2020 and 2021.

However, Ford’s car or sedan sales in the U.S. continued to slide to their new lows by the end of 2020 and as of 2Q 2021.

Ford has a lot of work to do in the car or sedan segment.

References and Credits

1. Vehicle sales and market share data were obtained and referenced from quarterly and annual statements which can be found in Ford’s Financials and Filings.

2. Growth rates and TTM figures are calculated by the author. Rounding errors may exist.

3. Featured images in this article are used under creative commons license and sourced from the following websites: More Cars and Mike Mozart.

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Disclosure

The content in this article is for informational purposes only and is neither a recommendation nor a piece of financial advice to purchase a stock.

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