Tesla makes the most money from selling and leasing electric vehicles, solar energy systems and energy storage products.
In addition, Tesla also makes money from selling electricity generated from its own solar energy systems. Best selling energy storage products such as the Powerwall and Powerpack are another line of Tesla’s revenue generators.
These are the typical money-making products for Tesla. But what you may not know is that Tesla has another source of income that has been contributing hundreds of millions of dollars every quarter, and more than a billion dollars as of 3Q 2020, to the company’s coffers.
And that revenue source, which is created literally out of thin air, comes from the so-called “Regulatory Credits”.
What are Regulatory Credits?
Regulatory Credits are credits or points given by the state and federal government for contributing zero pollution to the environment.
Basically, in the state of California and some other states in the US, auto manufacturers such as Tesla, Ford, General Motors and so on are required by laws to meet certain minimum emission standards for all the vehicles they produce and sell.
Otherwise, they will face hefty fines or risk having their license revoked by the state government for failing to meet these emission standards.
In simple terms, auto manufacturers are required to meet these emission standards and the only way for them to be in compliance with the requirements is to either improve their own vehicles’ emission or switch to manufacturing emission-free electric vehicle for 100% compliance or to purchase regulatory credits from other automakers that have excess credits such as Tesla.
The laws provide that automakers such as Tesla may keep the excess credits if they earn more credits than the minimum amount required. Auto manufacturers with a surplus of credits may sell their credits to other manufacturers, who can use the credits to comply with the laws.
ZEV and GHG Regulatory Credits
Since the vehicles produced by Tesla emit zero-emission, over the years, Tesla has earned a substantial amount of “Regulatory Credits” or sometimes referred to as ZEV (Zero-Emission Vehicles) credits under the state of California, which Tesla can sell to other auto manufactures.
The GHG credit or Green House Gas credit is another regulatory credit similar to ZEV credit where it’s applicable at the federal level requiring automakers to comply with the emission standard.
Based on the 2019 annual report, Tesla made about $594 million, $419 million and $360 million for the years ended December 2019, 2018 and 2017 respectively from selling regulatory credits alone. That’s quite a lot of money from a “product” literally with zero cost to produce.
The good news for Tesla’s investors is that the revenue from selling regulatory credits would most likely be increasing over time in the future when Tesla accelerates its goal of transitioning the world to renewable energy.
We have seen that Tesla’s regulatory credits sales have been increasing by an average of 70% year over year since 2012, according to the results from the plots below.
Let’s move on!
Tesla’s Sale of Regulatory Credits
The diagram above shows Tesla’s business segment where the regulatory credits revenue is produced.
As seen from the diagram, the sales of regulatory credits are recognized and reported under Tesla’s automotive sector.
Further down the automotive sector, Tesla’s regulatory credits revenues are combined and lumped together with other revenue sources, including new vehicle deliveries, sales of Supercharging and autopilot, etc to arrive at an aggregated automotive sales revenue.
Tesla’s Regulatory Credits Revenue (Yearly)
The chart above shows Tesla’s revenue from regulatory credits for the past 8 years from 2012 to 2019 on a yearly basis.
According to the chart, the long-term trend of the plot shows that the sales of regulatory credits have been increasing year over year between 2012 and 2019.
Tesla’s regulatory credits revenue reached the highest at nearly $600 million in 2019, a record high for the company on an annual basis since the start of regulatory credits sales.
Over the past 8 years, Tesla’s regulatory credits revenue has grown at an average growth rate of roughly 70% year on year since 2012.
On an absolute value basis, Tesla managed to recognize only $41 million in 2012 to as much as $594 million in 2019, all from the sales of regulatory credits alone.
Over the chart, we can see that the growth of Tesla’s regulatory credits revenue accelerates the most from 2016 to 2019, nearly doubling in sales within the 3 years.
The revenue figure in 2019 alone produces a growth rate of 42% year over year when Tesla’s regulatory credit revenue reached a record high of $594 million.
The half a billion-dollar sales of regulatory credits have certainly helped Tesla to boost its gross margin at a time when the company has been aggressively pricing its vehicles in order to grab market share from fossil fuel vehicles.
Tesla’s Regulatory Credits Revenue (Quarterly)
On a quarterly basis, Tesla’s regulatory credits revenue has been increasing steadily over the years, with 2020 having the most sales when regulatory credits revenue hit a record high of more than $300 million in 3 consecutive quarters.
According to the chart, in the first 3 quarters alone in 2020, Tesla has raked in nearly $1.2 billion of sales in regulatory credits, including both ZEV and GHG credits.
At this rate of growth, Tesla’s carbon credit sales should hit more than $1.5 billion by the end of 2020.
Ratio of Tesla’s Regulatory Credits to Total Revenue
The chart above shows the ratio of regulatory credits revenue with respect to total revenue expressed in percentage.
From the chart, the percentage has dropped drastically from 10% in 2012 to just 2.4% in 2019.
The continuous decline of the ratio shows that the sales of regulatory credits with respect to total revenue has been getting insignificant.
In this aspect, Tesla’s total sales have grown at a much faster rate than the rate of growth for carbon credits.
While Tesla may have posted record sales of regulatory credits in 2019, the result didn’t help to lift the ratio, indicating that Tesla’s other revenue sources such as the automotive sales have grown at a much faster rate.
Tesla Regulatory Credits Revenue Growth Rate
The plot above shows the year on year (YoY) growth rates of Tesla’s regulatory credits revenue from 2013 to 2019.
From the plot, YoY growth rate had been positive in all years except in 2015 when the growth rate turned negative at -22%.
In 2019, Tesla reported a very impressive growth rate of 42% for the regulatory credit revenue.
In a separate calculation, the average annual growth rate for sales of regulatory credits was about 74% from 2012 to 2019.
I believe that Tesla’s sales of regulatory credits will continue to grow at a double-digit growth rate, considering that the adoption of electric vehicles is still in its infancy and represents less than 5% of global vehicle sales.
Effect of Regulatory Credits on Gross Margin (Quarterly)
The chart above shows Tesla’s quarterly gross margin comparison for automotive revenue with and without regulatory credit revenue.
Critics have argued that the sales of regulatory credits have artificially boosted Tesla’s gross margin and thus the company’s profitability.
These arguments are valid to some degree because Tesla’s revenue from the sales of emission credits are not sustainable in the long run.
Tesla may run out of emission credits buyers in the future when most, if not all, automakers switch to manufacturing EVs.
According to the chart, Tesla’s regulatory credits revenue have certainly helped to increase automotive gross margin.
In Tesla’s case, the improvement in gross margin can be as low as 2% to as high as 6%.
For instance, Tesla reported the biggest jump in gross margin, an improvement of as much as 6% in Q2 2020, when regulatory credits revenue was recognized as part of the automotive sales.
Similarly, we are seeing a 4% gross margin improvement in 3Q 2020 when ZEV and GHG credits sales were added to the automotive revenue.
Effect of Regulatory Credits on Gross Margin (TTM)
To smooth out the quarterly plot, I have created the trailing 12-months (TTM) plot as shown in the chart above.
Again, Tesla reported the biggest improvement in the automotive gross margin in 2020 when regulatory credits sales were the highest.
On a TTM basis, Tesla’s automotive gross margin with and without regulatory credits sales differed by as much as 4% in 2Q and 3Q 2020, respectively.
Over the chart, we can see that the 2 plots started to diverge significantly throughout 2020, indicating that the regulatory credits did help to boost the gross margin considerably.
Tesla’s regulatory credits revenue has been growing at an average annual rate of 74% between 2012 and 2019, with 2019 being the best year when Tesla posted a revenue of more than half a billion dollars just from the sales of emission credits alone.
The best is yet to come. In the 1st 9 months of 2020 alone, Tesla has already recognized nearly $1.2 billion of regulatory credits revenue, beating all prior records.
At this rate of growth, Tesla will gain more than $1.5 billion of sales from carbon credits alone by the end of 2020.
Even though regulatory credits revenue has risen significantly over the past several years, its contribution to total revenue is getting less significant and was only 2.4% of total revenue in 2019.
Albeit less significant in contributing to total revenue, the regulatory credit sales have helped Tesla to improve its automotive gross margin.
The improvement can range from 2% to 6%, depending on the amount of carbon credits sales.
We have seen that the larger the revenue from regulatory credits, the bigger the improvement in automotive gross margin.
References and Credits
1. All information in this article was obtained and referenced from Tesla Update Letters and Presentations.
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