≡ Menu

Advertisement


Explore Tesla Stock Valuation With only 8 Ratios

Tesla battery & pack production line. Source: Tesla Q1 2020 investor update letter.

It’s difficult to value the worth of a company. This situation is more apparent when it comes to valuing Tesla.

When this article was published, Tesla’s stock has surged past USD$600 per piece post-5-to-1 split, bringing the company’s total market cap to more than $600 billion.

At this valuation, Tesla has notably overtaken Toyota, GM and Ford’s market cap combined and become the world’s most valuable automobile company.

Is Tesla worth this much? Let’s take a look.

In this article, we will explore Tesla’s stock valuation from the perspective of several ratios.

These ratios are Tesla’s price to revenue or sales, price to book value, price to gross profit, price to free cash flow, price to EBITDA, price to earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) as well as the price to earnings ratio.

We will look at these ratios over several periods to see how the company has been valued from a historical standpoint.

Let’s move on!

Chart of Tesla’s Market Capitalization

Tesla market capitalization

Tesla market capitalization

* Market cap data is computed by the author using Tesla’s common stock outstanding and weekly close price adjusted for split.
* Tesla’s common stock outstanding is obtained from the company’s annual and quarterly filings while weekly close price adjusted for split is obtained from Yahoo Finance.

Let’s first look at Tesla’s market cap before diving into the ratios.

The chart above shows Tesla’s total market capitalization for the period from 2016 to 2021.

Over the past 6 years, Tesla’s total market cap has increased almost 30X, growing from only $20 billion in market cap back in 2016 to nearly $700 billion as of May 2021.

The growth in the company market cap has been nothing short of extraordinary.

If you have invested $1,000 in Tesla’s stock in 2016 (adjusted stock price was only $30 in Feb 2016), your return on investment would have been slightly over 2000%.

Your total investment would come close to $20,000 by May 2021 within a period of fewer than 5 years.

Also, have you noticed from the chart that Tesla’s market cap has taken a severe hit in early 2020, dropping from a value of $160 billion to as low as $80 billion?

The decline in market cap has been mainly caused by the COVID-19 scare which has seriously crippled the automotive industry.

However, Tesla’s stock price emerged from the drop unscattered in subsequent periods and moved even higher post-COVID-19 pandemic.

Chart of Tesla’s Price to Sales Ratio

Tesla price to sales ratio

Tesla price to sales ratio

* Price to sales ratio is computed by the author using Tesla’s market cap calculated earlier and TTM sales.
* TTM sales is the sum of the quarterly data on a trailing 12-month or 4-quarter basis.

In terms of price to sales, Tesla’s stock valuation has gone through a dramatic change.

Tesla used to have a price to sales ratio of less than 10.0X prior to 2020.

This single-digit valuation ratio has maintained at this level for nearly 5 years before it dramatically surged beyond one’s wildest dream.

In Dec 2019, Tesla’s stock valuation with respect to TTM sales began to soar.

Within about a year, Tesla’s price to sales ratio hit its peak at nearly 30.0X by Dec 2020, indicating that the company’s stock price was traded at 30 times its TTM sales.

However, the ratio declined steadily subsequently and reached about 20.0X as of May 2021.

At this ratio, Tesla’s valuation has gone down slightly lower compared to its prior highs.

Tesla’s valuation has stayed at this level throughout 1Q 2021 which was about 20.0X of its TTM revenue.

If anyone had noticed, Tesla’s stock valuation with respect to revenue was at an all-time low before its meteoric rise.

In 4Q 2019, Tesla’s price to sales ratio was only 3.0X.

At this ratio, Tesla’s stock was traded at only 3 times it TTM revenue.

If you had bought the stock when it was traded at this valuation, you would have reaped a handsome reward by now.

For your information, Tesla’s adjusted stock price was only about $50 in June 2019, giving you a return on investment of more than 1000% by May 2021.

Chart of Tesla’s Price to Book Value Ratio

Tesla price to book value ratio

Tesla price to book value ratio

* Price to book ratio is computed by the author using Tesla’s market cap calculated earlier and shareholders’ equity.

The chart above shows Tesla’s price to book value or shareholders’ equity for the period between 2016 and 2021.

Tesla’s book value is the net worth of the company.

Prior to 2020, Tesla’s price to book ratio has been mostly flat at roughly 10.0X between 2016 and 2019.

At this valuation, Tesla’s stock price was trading at about 10 times the company’s net worth.

Similar to the price to revenue ratio which we saw earlier, Tesla’s price to book ratio began its meteoric rise in 2020.

In Q1 2020, Tesla’s stock price took off and reached an all-time high by Dec 2020, causing the company’s market cap to book value ratio to hit 50.0X by Dec 2020.

At 50 times book value or net worth, Tesla was valued at a sky-high valuation compared to its peers such as Toyota, Ford and GM to name a few.

From a comparison perspective, Toyota’s price to equity was only slightly above 1.00 as of May 2021.

GM and Ford’s price to equity ratio was about the same as that of Toyota according to Yahoo Finance during the same period.

In short, Tesla’s valuation with respect to shareholder’s equity was so much higher than its peers.

Chart of Tesla’s Price to Gross Profit Ratio

Tesla price to gross profit ratio

Tesla price to gross profit ratio

* Price to gross profit ratio is computed by the author using Tesla’s market cap calculated earlier and TTM gross profit.
* TTM gross profit is the sum of the quarterly data on a trailing 12-month or 4-quarter basis.

In terms of gross profit, Tesla’s valuation also experienced a similar trend in its plot.

As seen from the chart above, Tesla’s market cap to gross profit has been roughly flat prior to 2020, averaging around 20.0X.

The price to gross profit ratio even declined to only 10.0X in 2019 4Q.

However, Tesla’s price to gross profit ratio did not stay at this low level for long and started to rise at the end of 2019 and reached nearly 140.0X by the end of 2020.

Before its dramatic ascent, investors noticed that Tesla’s valuation was too low and the stock was a buy due to its improving fundamentals and outlook.

At that time, Tesla’s gross profit was trending higher, pointing to the company’s improving business outlook.

As a result, Tesla’s valuation with respect to gross profit surged in line with other valuation ratios beginning in 2020.

As of May 2021, Tesla’s price to gross profit ratio has declined slightly to about 85.0X due mainly to the declining stock price.

Chart of Tesla’s Price to EBIT Ratio

Tesla price to EBIT ratio

Tesla price to EBIT ratio

* Price to EBIT ratio is computed by the author using Tesla’s market cap calculated earlier and TTM EBIT.
* EBIT stands for earnings before interest and taxes and is also referred to as operating income.
* TTM EBIT is the sum of the quarterly data on a trailing 12-month or 4-quarter basis.

EBIT stands for earnings before interest and taxes. In other words, EBIT also represents operating income or profit.

Tesla’s EBIT covers almost all costs of doing business including costs of revenues, R&D and SGA expenses.

However, the EBIT does not cover interest expenses and taxes.

Nevertheless, Tesla’s price to EBIT or operating income ratio in the chart above soared beyond 300 throughout 2020 due mainly to the tiny operating profit that the company had generated.

At one point, Tesla’s stock was even traded at more than 450.0X its TTM operating profit.

As of May 2021, Tesla’s price to operating profit ratio dropped to 300, driven partly by the declining stock price and also the improving operating profits in 2021.

The area in the chart where the ratio is zero indicates negative EBIT, meaning that Tesla did not make any profits in those periods.

Chart of Tesla’s Price to EBITDA Ratio

Tesla price to EBITDA ratio

Tesla price to EBITDA ratio

* Price to EBITDA ratio is computed by the author using Tesla’s market cap calculated earlier and TTM EBITDA.
* EBITDA stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization and is a measure of a company’s net cash generated from operation prior to the changes in working capital.
* TTM EBITDA is the sum of the quarterly data on a trailing 12-month or 4-quarter basis.

Another important variable that relates closely to Tesla’s valuation is EBITDA.

EBITDA is a metric that measures Tesla’s liquidity and is similar to operating cash flow but before taking into account the investment in working capital and fixed assets as explained in this article: Tesla’s EBITDA.

For your information, the EBITDA used in the chart above is derived from Tesla’s adjusted EBITDA extracted from the company’s quarterly and annual filings.

According to the chart above, Tesla’s price to EBITDA ratio has had quite a dramatic fluctuation in the past.

For example, the ratio surged to extreme levels, above 200, back in 2018.

The reason is that Tesla had only been able to generate a small amount of EBITDA or cash flow in those days, driving the ratio to an extreme high.

Nevertheless, Tesla’s EBITDA slowly improved over the years, starting in 2019 in particular.

In 2019, Tesla’s stock was traded at a reasonable price to EBITDA ratio of around 20.0X.

Going into 2020, investors realized that Tesla’s valuation was too low as the company was delivering a stellar result in terms of vehicle sold.

Before long, Tesla’s price to EBITDA ratio took off by the end of 2019 and continued to surge for the rest of 2020 and reached above 150.0X by Feb 2021.

As of May 2021, Tesla’s stock was traded at about 100.0X its TTM EBITDA.

According to the chart, the best time to buy Tesla’s stock would be during mid of 2019 when the valuation with respect to EBITDA was at only 20.0X.

Again, if you had bought Tesla’s stock in mid-2019, your investment would have worth 10X more now.

Chart of Tesla’s Price to Free Cash Flow Ratio

Tesla price to free cash flow ratio

Tesla price to free cash flow ratio

* Price to free cash flow ratio is computed by the author using Tesla’s market cap calculated earlier and TTM free cash flow.
* Free cash flow consists of the difference between net cash from operating activities and capital expenditures.
* TTM free cash flow is the sum of the quarterly data on a trailing 12-month or 4-quarter basis.

Free cash flow is another important metric that can be used to measure Tesla’s valuation.

As we all know, cash is king when it comes to the survival of a company.

A company can operate without a profit but not without cash.

All it takes is only a quarter of operation with zero cash balance to plunge the company into bankruptcy.

As such, I have created the chart above to track Tesla’s market cap to free cash flow ratio for the period from 2016 to 2021.

Based on the chart above, the majority of the ratio is at 0.

The reason is that Tesla had failed to generate any positive free cash flow in these periods.

Nevertheless, Tesla started to generate a tiny bit of free cash flow in June 2019 as seen from the surging price to free cash flow ratio which reached more than 300X.

As Tesla improved its free cash flow generation in 2019, the ratio slowly declined and reached less than 50X by the end of 2019.

Subsequently, Tesla’s price to free cash flow ratio continued to soar and topped out at more than 450X in 4Q 2020.

While Tesla’s free cash flow has increased in these periods, the ratio did not drop.

The reason is that Tesla’s surging stock prices far outpaced the rate of increases in free cash flow.

As of May 2021, Tesla’s valuation has declined to a reasonable 150X of its TTM free cash flow.

Chart of Tesla’s Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio

Tesla price to earnings ratio

Tesla price to earnings ratio

* Price to earnings ratio is computed by the author using Tesla’s market cap calculated earlier and TTM net earnings attributable to common shareholders.
* Net earnings attributable to common shareholders is also referred to as the net income or net profit available to common shareholders.
* TTM net earnings is the sum of the quarterly data on a trailing 12-month or 4-quarter basis.

One last valuation ratio that is as important as the free cash flow ratio is the price-to-earnings ratio or PE ratio.

The net earnings are the net income or net profit available to common stockholders.

The net earnings dictate the price of Tesla’s stock.

While the net earnings or net profits are an important metric when it comes to Tesla’s valuation, the company seems to be only making a profit in recent quarters.

According to the chart above, Tesla’s price to earnings or PE ratio has been mostly nill prior to 2020.

Tesla has only managed to generate positive net income starting in 2Q 2020 from a TTM perspective.

To make matter worse, Tesla makes only very small profits.

As a result, Tesla’s PE ratio has been on an extreme level as shown in the chart.

As seen, Tesla’s price to earnings ratio debuted at 800 in 3Q 2020 and soared beyond 1,600 by Jan 2021.

However, Tesla’s PE ratio has dropped to a more reasonable value as of May 2021 to slightly above 600.

In short, Tesla’s price to earnings ratio has been at an extreme level, indicating the extraordinary valuation the company has been having.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Tesla’s market cap has surged more than 3000% within a period of 5 years, growing from a market cap of only $20 billion in 2016 to more than $600 billion by May 2021.

Prior to 2021, Tesla’s market capitalization actually soared beyond $800 billion, illustrating the extreme valuation the company had before.

Tesla’s growth in valuation has probably gone too fast and too much in such a short period of time, especially in 2020 where the stock has surged more than 1000% alone.

While Tesla’s valuation has declined considerably from its prior highs as of May 2021, it’s still extremely overvalued from a historical basis.

As of May 2021, Tesla’s price to revenue, price to gross profit, price to book value, price to free cash flow as well as the price to earnings ratio were still at an extreme level although they had already declined considerably from their prior highs.

In the meantime, Tesla’s peers such as Toyota, GM and Ford were trading slightly above their book values as of May 2021.

Similarly, their valuation with respect to other metrics including sales and earnings was also in line with their historical averages as of May 2021.

From the analysis of all the charts, the best buy point of Tesla’s stock was in June 2019 when the company’s valuation with respect to all the fundamental variables was at a record low.

In June 2019, Tesla’s stock price was only $50 per piece after the 5-to-1 split.

As of May 2021, Tesla’s stock was worth over $600 per piece, giving a return on investment of over 10X.

Notes to Readers

This article will be updated from time to time to keep track of the changes in Tesla’s market capitalization as well as valuation with respect to all the discussed fundamental variables.

Therefore, please sign up for our newsletter to stay up-to-date on Tesla’s stock valuation.

References and Credits

1. Financial figures in all charts and images were obtained and referenced from the following websites:

a. Tesla Financial Results Released Date
b. Tesla Annual and Quarterly Filings
c. Tesla Key Statistic From Yahoo Finance

2. Featured images in this article are used under creative commons license and sourced from the following websites: Paulius Malinovskis.

Other Stock Analysis That You May Find Related

Disclosure

Readers, investors, analysts, bloggers, visitors, researchers, writers, or academicians are highly encouraged to use, copy, quote, distribute, duplicate, modify, edit, upload, download, share and link any materials on this webpage such as the charts, snapshots, texts, paragraphs, etc. in your websites, research papers, essays and so on.

You can credit back to this page by a link or a mention of the website. Thanks for sharing!

{ 1 comment… add one }
  • Cristobal Botanch October 20, 2020, 10:08 am

    Thank you for sharing

Leave a Comment


X

Forgot Password?

Join Us