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Tracking Ford Wholesale Vehicle Deliveries Numbers

Ford Motors (NYSE:F) presents 2 types of vehicle deliveries numbers in its annual and quarterly releases, and they are

(1) wholesale vehicle sales, and
(2) retail vehicle sales.

The difference between the two is explained below.

Wholesale Vehicle Sales

Wholesale vehicle sales or deliveries consists primarily of vehicles sold to dealerships.

Such vehicles are shipped directly to the dealerships from Ford’s manufacturing facilities or warehouses.

Ford recognizes such deliveries as revenue when the shipments safely arrive in the dealerships.

Therefore, the majority of such sales correlate with Ford’s recognized revenue presented in the company’s income statements.

Retail Vehicle Sales

On the other hand, retail vehicle deliveries represents sales by dealerships to end customers and are based on estimated vehicle registrations.

However, Ford does not recognize such sales as part of the company’s revenue or income.

Therefore, Ford’s retail vehicle sales do not correlate with the company’s revenue figures in the income statements.

What We Cover Here

In this article, we cover only Ford’s vehicle wholesale deliveries.

For Ford’s retail sales data, please head out to the following page.

Aside from the vehicle delivery numbers, this article also covers quarterly and year-on-year growth rates.

Besides, we also look at the breakdown of Ford’s vehicle wholesale by region and by type.

Let’s move on!

Ford’s Vehicle Wholesale By Quarter

Ford vehicle wholesale - quarterly

Ford vehicle wholesale – quarterly

* Vehicle wholesale figures are obtained directly from Ford’s quarterly and annual reports.
* Ford’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

The chart above shows Ford’s quarterly total vehicle deliveries between fiscal 2016 and 2021.

The vehicle delivery data presented here includes all deliveries by Ford’s subsidiaries as well as its unconsolidated affiliates in China.

According to the chart, Ford’s quarterly vehicle deliveries have been trending downward since 2016, with the delivery figure reaching an average of fewer than 1 million vehicles per quarter in fiscal 2021.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused Ford’s wholesale vehicle deliveries to decline to only 645,000 units in 2Q 2020, the lowest quarterly figure ever seen in the last 5 years.

However, Ford’s wholesale vehicle deliveries recovered significantly to their pre-COVID levels in subsequent quarters.

As of 2021 3Q, Ford delivered about 1.0 million vehicles on a wholesale basis, down 14% from a year ago.

All in all, Ford’s vehicle wholesale has been on a decline over the last 6 years and the company delivered fewer than 1.0 million vehicles per quarter as of fiscal 2021.

Ford’s Vehicle Wholesale By TTM

Ford vehicle wholesale - ttm

Ford vehicle wholesale – ttm

* Vehicle wholesale data shown in the chart above is presented on a TTM basis.
* TTM figures came from the author’s own calculation and consist of the sum of the quarterly data on a trailing 12-month or 4-quarter basis.

To clearly see the long-term trend of Ford’s vehicle delivery numbers, we look at the TTM or trailing 12-month plot which is shown in the chart above for the period from fiscal 2016 to 2021.

According to the chart, the trend is much clearer and it shows that Ford’s TTM vehicle deliveries have been declining in the last 5 years.

Ford used to deliver more than 6 million vehicles back in fiscal 2016 on a wholesale basis.

However, that figure has dropped to only 4 million units in fiscal 2020, and even less in fiscal 2021.

As of fiscal 3Q 2021, Ford’s TTM vehicle deliveries totaled only 4.1 million units, the lowest figure that Ford has ever reported since 2016.

In short, Ford’s TTM vehicle deliveries have been trending down on a long-term basis and reached their lowest levels in fiscal 2021.

Ford’s Vehicle Wholesale By Regions – Quarterly

Ford vehicle wholesale by region - quarterly

Ford vehicle wholesale by region – quarterly

* Vehicle wholesale by region is obtained directly from Ford’s quarterly and annual reports.
* Vehicle wholesale in China includes data that comes from unconsolidated affiliates.
* Ford’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

The chart above breaks down Ford’s vehicle deliveries according to regions such as North America, South America, Europe and China.

Ford only broke down the China vehicle delivery data starting in 1Q 2020 and recast the historical data that dates back to 4Q 2018.

According to the chart, North America has been the biggest wholesale market for Ford between fiscal 2016 and 2021, contributing close to 650,000 vehicle deliveries per quarter to the company.

However, this figure has been declining and reached fewer than 500,000 deliveries per quarter as of fiscal 2021.

The 2nd largest market goes to Europe at roughly 330,000 vehicle deliveries per quarter and the 3rd place was claimed by China at about 150,000 vehicle deliveries per quarter on average.

Similarly, the European region vehicle deliveries also have been on a decline and reached fewer than 300,000 deliveries per quarter as of fiscal 2021.

The chart shows that Ford’s vehicle wholesale has declined in most market segments except for China over the last 6 years.

For example, Ford reported fewer than 500,000 vehicle deliveries per quarter on average in fiscal 2021 in North America, the lowest since 2016.

Similarly, Ford delivered fewer than 20,000 vehicles on average per quarter in South America in fiscal 2021, the worst the company has ever seen.

Despite having lower vehicle deliveries in most regions, Ford’s China vehicle wholesale has maintained at roughly the same figure on a quarterly basis.

In fact, Ford’s quarterly China vehicle wholesale has inched slightly higher in fiscal 2021 compared to the prior year.

As of 2021 3Q, Ford delivered 546,000 vehicles in North America, up significantly from the previous quarter but down 16% from a year ago.

Similarly, Ford delivered 218,000 vehicles in Europe in fiscal 3Q 2021, up from the prior quarter but down 9% from a year ago.

Ford’s China vehicle deliveries have maintained at the same figure in fiscal Q3 2021 compared to a year ago at 162,000 vehicles.

Ford’s South America vehicle deliveries are the lowest among all market segments and the company delivered only 20,000 vehicles in fiscal 3Q 2021, down nearly 60% from a year ago.

However, Ford’s South America vehicle wholesale represents less than 5% of Ford’s total sales, the impact from this region has been insignificant.

Ford’s Vehicle Wholesale By Regions – TTM

Ford vehicle wholesale by region - ttm

Ford vehicle wholesale by region – ttm

* Vehicle wholesale by region data shown in the chart above is presented on a TTM basis.
* TTM figures came from the author’s own calculation and consist of the sum of the quarterly data on a trailing 12-month or 4-quarter basis.

Again, to clearly see the long-term trend of Ford’s vehicle deliveries, we look at the TTM plot which is shown in the chart above.

The TTM plots above present a much clearer trend for Ford’s vehicle deliveries in North America, China, South America and Europe.

That said, Ford’s vehicle wholesale has declined since fiscal 2016 across all regions except for China.

Ford’s China vehicle deliveries have actually increased and reached more than 664,000 vehicles as of fiscal 2021 Q3 on a TTM basis, up 16% year-over-year.

For other regions such as North America and Europe, Ford’s TTM vehicle deliveries have plunged to all-time lows at 1.9 million and 1.0 million units, respectively, in fiscal 3Q 2021.

Similarly, Ford’s South America plunged to only 119,000 vehicles as of fiscal 3Q 2021 on a TTM basis, down nearly 40% from a year ago.

Ford’s Vehicle Wholesale By Type In The U.S. – Quarterly

Ford vehicle wholesale by type in the U.S. - quarterly

Ford vehicle wholesale by type in the U.S. – quarterly

* Vehicle wholesale by type in the U.S. data is obtained directly from Ford’s quarterly and annual reports.
* Ford’s fiscal year begins on Jan 1 and ends on Dec 31.

The chart above shows the breakdown of Ford’s vehicle delivery by type in the U.S. between fiscal 2018 and 2021.

Only 3 types of vehicle deliveries are shown in the chart, namely truck, SUV and car/sedan.

Accordingly, Ford’s truck wholesale in the U.S. averaged 270,000 vehicles per quarter for the company.

However, this figure has plunged to only 220,000 vehicles per quarter in fiscal 2021.

Similarly, Ford’s SUV or crossover wholesale in the U.S. averaged 200,000 vehicles per quarter but this figure also has declined to 160,000 in fiscal 2021.

Ford’s car or sedan wholesale in the U.S. has gotten even worse and is the lowest among the 3 vehicle types.

As seen, in fiscal 2021, Ford delivered only 10,000 cars or sedans per quarter on average in the U.S. compared to the historical average of 60,000 vehicles per quarter.

In Q3 2021, Ford shipped 264,000 trucks in the U.S., representing a year-on-year decline of 15%.

Similarly, Ford’s SUV or crossover wholesale clocked at 197,000 units in 3Q 2021 in the U.S., down 8% from a year ago.

Ford’s car or sedan wholesale in the U.S. is the worst among the 3 vehicle types in fiscal 3Q 2021 as the latest figure is down nearly 80% year-over-year.

According to Ford, the company’s profitability has been largely depending on sales of large vehicles such as trucks and SUV/crossovers as outlined in the 2019 Q4 financial report:

  • “Ford’s results are dependent on sales of larger, more profitable vehicles, particularly in the United States.

    A shift in consumer preferences away from larger, more profitable vehicles (including trucks and utilities) at levels beyond our current planning assumption, whether because of spiking fuel prices, a decline in the construction industry, government actions or incentives, or other reasons, could result in an immediate and substantial adverse effect on our financial condition or results of operations.”

Judging from the trend, if Ford’s truck and SUV wholesales continue to plunge in subsequent quarters, the impact will most likely land on Ford’s profits.

The decline in Ford’s truck and SUV deliveries in the U.S. may only be short-term.

On a longer-term basis, Ford should also benefit greatly from the huge infrastructure spending outlined in the Biden administration.

When more construction activities are taking place, more trucks and SUVs will be needed and this will undoubtedly translate to higher demand for Ford’s truck and SUVs.

Ford’s Vehicle Wholesale By Type In The U.S. – TTM

Ford vehicle wholesale by type in the U.S. - TTM

Ford vehicle wholesale by type in the U.S. – TTM

* Vehicle wholesale by type in the U.S. data shown in the chart above is presented on a TTM basis.
* TTM figures came from the author’s own calculation and consist of the sum of the quarterly data on a trailing 12-month or 4-quarter basis.

Similarly, the TTM plots above present a much clearer trend for Ford’s truck, SUV and car/sedan wholesale in the U.S.

As seen, Ford’s sales of all vehicle types in the U.S. have been on a decline although the quarterly plots tell otherwise.

Ford’s car or sedan wholesale in the U.S. is among the worst when only 46,000 deliveries were reported as of fiscal 3Q 2021, a record low for this vehicle segment.

Similarly, Ford’s truck deliveries in the U.S. also have been on a decline and reached 911,000 units as of Q3 2021, a new low for the company.

On the other hand, Ford’s SUV or crossover wholesale in the U.S. has remained resilient in fiscal 2021.

As of Q3 2021, Ford’s SUV deliveries in the U.S. came in at 722,000 vehicles, a decline of less than 1% year-on-year.

Ford’s Total Wholesale QoQ Growth Rates

Ford vehicle wholesale quarterly growth rates

Ford vehicle wholesale quarterly growth rates

* QoQ growth rates came from the author’s own calculation and is based on Ford’s quarterly total wholesale data.

Ford’s wholesale sequential growth rates are mostly in the red in the last 3 years, indicating a consistent quarterly decline in vehicle deliveries.

In fiscal 3Q 2021, Ford’s quarterly growth rate topped more than 30% compared to a decline of 28% reported in the prior quarter.

Ford’s Total Wholesale YoY Growth Rates

Ford vehicle wholesale YoY growth rates

Ford vehicle wholesale YoY growth rates

* YoY growth rates came from the author’s own calculation and is based on Ford’s quarterly total wholesale data.

Similarly, Ford’s vehicle wholesale YoY growth rates also have been mostly negative as shown in the chart above, illustrating a consistent decline of Ford’s vehicle deliveries on a year-over-year basis in the last 3 years.

As of 2021 Q3, Ford’s YoY growth rate for vehicle wholesale plunged to -14% compared to a growth of 18% in the prior year.

Conclusion

To recap, Ford’s total vehicle wholesale has been slipping since fiscal 2016, down more than 30% from its high reported in the same fiscal year.

As of 3Q 2021, Ford delivered 1.0 million vehicles on a quarterly basis and 4.1 million vehicles on a TTM basis, down 14% and 5%, respectively, from a year ago.

Ford’s vehicle deliveries in the North American region also have been down since fiscal 2016 and reached only 546,000 units on a quarterly basis or 1.9 million units on a TTM basis in fiscal Q3 2021, down 16% and 12%, respectively, from a year ago.

Ford also experienced a similar decline in vehicle wholesale in regions such as Europe and Southe America.

The only region that sees an increase in fiscal 2021 was in China.

Of all regions, Ford’s vehicle wholesale in South America was not only the smallest but also the worst in terms of the rate of decline.

When we look at Ford’s vehicle wholesale by vehicle segment in the U.S., Ford’s car or sedan wholesale slipped the most in fiscal 2021, reaching only 10,000 units per quarter or 46,000 units per TTM in Q3 2021.

On the other hand, Ford’s SUV or crossover wholesale in the U.S. has remained resilent despite having multiple headwinds, including COVID and microchip crisis, and has maintained at roughly the same figures in 3Q 2021 compared to a year ago.

References and Credits

1. Vehicle wholesale data in all charts were obtained and referenced from Ford’s financial reports which are available at Ford’s SEC Filings.

2. Featured images in this article are used under creative commons license and sourced from the following websites: Mike Mozart.

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Disclosure

The content in this article is for informational purposes only and is neither a recommendation nor a piece of financial advice to purchase a stock.

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