Ford Motors (NYSE:F) presents 2 types of vehicle deliveries numbers in its annual and quarterly releases, and they are
(2) retail vehicle sales.
The difference between the two is explained below.
Wholesale Vehicle Sales
Wholesale vehicle sales or deliveries consist primarily of vehicles sold to dealerships.
Such vehicles are shipped directly to the dealerships from Ford’s manufacturing facilities or warehouses.
Ford recognizes such deliveries as revenue when the shipments safely arrive in the dealerships.
Therefore, the majority of such sales correlate with Ford’s recognized revenue presented in the company’s income statements.
Retail Vehicle Sales
On the other hand, retail vehicle deliveries represent sales by dealerships to end customers and are based on estimated vehicle registrations.
However, Ford does not recognize such sales as part of the company’s revenue or income.
Therefore, Ford’s retail vehicle sales do not correlate with the company’s revenue figures in the income statements.
What We Cover Here
In this article, we cover only Ford’s vehicle wholesale deliveries.
For Ford’s retail sales data, please head out to the following page.
Aside from the vehicle delivery numbers, this article also covers quarterly, annual and year-on-year growth rates.
Besides, we also look at the breakdown of Ford’s vehicle deliveries by region and by type.
Let’s move on!
Ford’s Vehicle Wholesale Topics
1. Vehicle Wholesale By Quarter
2. Vehicle Wholesale By TTM
3. Vehicle Average Selling Price
4. Vehicle Wholesale By Year
5. Vehicle Wholesale By Regions – Quarterly
6. Vehicle Wholesale By Regions – TTM
7. Vehicle Wholesale By Type In The U.S. – Quarterly
8. Vehicle Wholesale By Type In The U.S. – TTM
9. Vehicle Wholesale QoQ Growth Rates
10. Vehicle Wholesale YoY Growth Rates
12. References and Credits
Ford’s Vehicle Wholesale By Quarter
Ford’s vehicle wholesale presented here includes all deliveries by Ford’s subsidiaries as well as its unconsolidated affiliates in China.
According to the chart, Ford’s quarterly vehicle deliveries have been on a decline since 2016.
Ford used to deliver close to 2 million vehicles per quarter.
However, as of 2022, Ford Motor only managed to deliver slightly above 1 million vehicles per quarter.
Ford’s quarterly vehicle wholesale was seen tumbling to a record low of 600,000 units when the COVID-19 pandemic struck.
Fortunately, Ford’s vehicle wholesale has been on recovery during the post-pandemic period.
As of 2022 4Q, Ford delivered about 1.1 million vehicles on a wholesale basis, up 4% from a year ago.
Ford’s Vehicle Wholesale By TTM
To clearly see the long-term trend of Ford’s vehicle delivery numbers, we look at the TTM or trailing 12-month plot which is shown in the chart above for the period from fiscal 2017 to 2022.
According to the chart, the trend is much clearer and it shows that Ford’s vehicle deliveries have indeed been declining in the last 6 years.
That said, Ford used to deliver more than 6 million vehicles on a wholesale basis.
However, that figure has dropped to only 4 million units as of fiscal 2022.
For example, as of fiscal 4Q 2022, Ford’s TTM vehicle deliveries totaled 4.2 million units.
While Ford’s vehicle wholesale was considerably low in 2022, it was actually much higher than that in 2021.
More importantly, Ford’s vehicle deliveries have been on a rise since 1Q 2022.
For instance, Ford’s Q4 2022 delivery figure was 7% higher than that of the same quarter a year ago.
Ford’s Vehicle Average Selling Price
The average selling price depicts the average sale price of Ford’s vehicle.
As shown, Ford’s vehicle average sale price has been rising since 2019 and came in at $40,000 USD as of Q4 2022, the highest figure ever reached in the last 4 years.
From a comparison perspective, Ford’s ASP is in line with GM’s vehicle selling price, which averaged $40,000 USD per vehicle as of 2022.
A trend worth taking a look at is Ford’s rising ASP but falling vehicle deliveries over the years.
For example, Ford’s ASP has risen by a massive 38% since 2019 while vehicle deliveries have dropped 25% in the same period.
This explains Ford’s rising automotive revenue despite the falling vehicle wholesale.
As seen in the next chart, Ford’s automotive revenue totaled $149 billion in 2022 compared to only $146 billion reported in 2017 despite a significantly higher vehicle delivery in the same year.
Ford’s Vehicle Wholesale By Year
Ford delivered 4.2 million vehicles on a wholesale basis in 2022, a rise of 7% over 2021.
In line with the rise of vehicle deliveries in 2022, Ford’s automotive revenue also grew significantly in the same year.
For example, Ford’s automotive revenue totaled $149 billion USD in 2022, up by a massive 18% over 2021.
In 2023, Ford is expected to deliver 4.35 million vehicles or 3% higher on a year-over-year basis.
This figure is inclusive of the delivery in China which is estimated to come in at 500,000 units for 2023.
Similarly, Ford’s automotive revenue is projected to reach $153 billion in 2023 on the back of a higher vehicle wholesale in the same year.
Ford’s Vehicle Wholesale By Regions – Quarterly
The chart above breaks down Ford’s vehicle deliveries according to regions such as North America, South America, Europe, and China.
Ford only published the China vehicle delivery data starting in 1Q 2020 and recast the historical data that dates back to only 4Q 2018.
According to the chart, North America has been the biggest wholesale market for Ford between fiscal 2017 and 2022, contributing roughly 600,000 vehicle deliveries per quarter to the company.
In 2022 4Q, Ford delivered 635,000 vehicles in North America, up significantly from the previous quarter and the quarter a year ago.
Europe has been Ford’s second biggest market among North America, China, and South America.
In 2022 4Q, Ford delivered 265,000 vehicles in Europe, up 24% over 2021 but down slightly from the prior quarter.
Ford’s vehicle wholesale in China has been roughly flat and totaled 117,000 units in Q4 2022.
Keep in mind that Ford’s wholesale in China is not recognized as revenue due to Ford’s minority stake within the entity in China.
Ford’s vehicle delivery came in at the lowest in South America in 4Q 2022, at only 26,000 units.
Ford’s Vehicle Wholesale By Regions – TTM
Again, to clearly see the long-term trend of Ford’s vehicle deliveries, we look at the TTM plot which is shown in the chart above.
The TTM plots above present a much clearer trend for Ford’s vehicle deliveries in North America, China, South America, and Europe.
That said, Ford’s vehicle wholesale in North America rebounded in 2022, topping 2.3 million vehicles as of Q4 2022, and represents a rise of 16% over 2021.
Ford’s Europe also rebounded significantly in 2022, logging a massive 1 million vehicle sales as of Q4 2022, and represents an increase of 14% over 2021.
While vehicle deliveries in North America and Europe rebounded in 2022, Ford China was seeing a decline as of Q4 2022.
For example, Ford delivered only 500,000 vehicles as of 4Q 2022 on a TTM basis, down 23% over 2021.
Ford’s vehicle wholesale in South America remained flat at 82,000 units as of Q4 2022.
Ford’s Vehicle Wholesale By Type In The U.S. – Quarterly
The chart above shows the breakdown of Ford’s vehicle delivery by type in the U.S. between fiscal 2018 and 2022.
Only 3 types of vehicle deliveries are shown in the chart, namely truck, SUV, and car/sedan.
Accordingly, Ford’s truck wholesale in the U.S. forms the biggest portion, at 306,000 units or 56% of total delivery in Q4 2022.
Ford delivered 227,000 SUVs or 41% of total delivery in 4Q 2022.
In terms of cars or sedans, Ford’s wholesale in this segment in the U.S. came in at only 16,000 or 3% of total delivery in 4Q 2022.
According to Ford, the company’s profitability is largely dependent on sales of large vehicles such as trucks and SUVs or crossovers as outlined in the 2019 Q4 financial report:
“Ford’s results are dependent on sales of larger, more profitable vehicles, particularly in the United States.
A shift in consumer preferences away from larger, more profitable vehicles (including trucks and utilities) at levels beyond our current planning assumption, whether because of spiking fuel prices, a decline in the construction industry, government actions or incentives, or other reasons, could result in an immediate and substantial adverse effect on our financial condition or results of operations.”
As Ford’s truck and SUV wholesales represent the biggest portion of total delivery, Ford will certainly be very profitable irrespective of how its car or sedan segment is doing in North America.
In addition, Ford should also benefit greatly from the huge infrastructure spending outlined in the Biden administration.
When more construction activities are taking place, more trucks and SUVs will be needed and this will undoubtedly translate to higher demand for Ford’s trucks and SUVs.
Therefore, Ford Motor is in a good position to capture the growing demand for large vehicles.
Ford’s Vehicle Wholesale By Type In The U.S. – TTM
Similarly, the TTM plots above present a much clearer trend for Ford’s truck, SUV, and car/sedan wholesale in the U.S.
As seen, Ford’s sales of all vehicle types in the U.S. rebounded significantly in 2022 from 2021.
For example, Ford sold 1,052,000 trucks on a TTM basis as of Q4 2022, or 52% of total delivery which represents a rise of 12% over 2021.
Ford’s SUV delivery totaled 911,000 units or 45% of total wholesale as of Q4 2022, an increase of 26% over 2021.
Ford’s car or sedan delivery totaled only 49,000 units as of Q4 2022, or 2% of total delivery which was in line with that of the same quarter a year ago.
Therefore, Ford’s truck and SUV sales as of Q4 2022 represent the biggest growth for the company.
This trend certainly translates to a bigger profit for Ford as large vehicles deliver the biggest profit to the company as discussed earlier.
Ford’s Total Wholesale QoQ Growth Rates
Ford’s wholesale sequential growth rates had been mostly in the red in the last 3 years, indicating a consistent quarterly decline in vehicle deliveries.
However, the negative trend has reversed in 2022.
As seen, Ford’s vehicle wholesale quarterly growth in 2022 had been mostly positive.
In fiscal 4Q 2022, Ford’s quarterly growth rate topped 6% compared to the 5% reported in the prior quarter.
Ford’s Total Wholesale YoY Growth Rates
Similarly, Ford’s vehicle wholesale YoY growth rates also had been mostly negative as shown in the chart above, illustrating a consistent decline in Ford’s vehicle deliveries on a year-over-year basis since 2019.
The negative trend also reversed as of 2022, with positive growth rates exceeding that of negative ones.
In 2022 Q4, Ford’s YoY growth rate for vehicle wholesale crossed 4% compared to the 7% reported in the prior quarter.
In summary, Ford’s vehicle delivery rebounded significantly in 2022 from 2021 not only in North America but also in other regions such as Europe.
While Ford delivered record results in 2022, its vehicle wholesale in China and South America were flat, illustrating the tough business environment in these regions.
In terms of vehicle delivery in the U.S., Ford also saw significant improvement in vehicle wholesale in the U.S. as of 2022.
Particularly, Ford’s truck and SUV deliveries in the U.S. improved significantly in 2022 from 2021.
Also, Ford’s trucks and SUVs represent the biggest portion of the company’s total delivery in the U.S., highlighting the profitable nature of Ford’s automotive business in North America.
For your information, Ford’s trucks and SUVs delivery in the U.S. represents a massive 97% of the total delivery in 2022.
Apart from the huge contribution of trucks and SUVs, Ford’s vehicle sale price also has been on a rise, topping a massive $40,000 USD per vehicle as of Q4 2022.
Despite the declining vehicle wholesale numbers, Ford has the competitive advantage to increase vehicle prices to drive margin expansion and derive a bigger profit.
References and Credits
1. Ford’s vehicle wholesale data in this article were obtained and referenced from the company’s financial reports and earnings releases which are available at Ford’s SEC Filings.
2. Featured images in this article are used under creative commons license and sourced from the following websites: Mike Mozart.
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